The need for the stabilization of the political situation in Turkey will prompt President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to strengthen relations with Russia, especially since the discontent with his domestic policy has not diminished on the part of the military, the director of the Institute of Oriental Studies, Vitaly Naumkin, said in an interview to Vestnik Kavkaza, commenting on the consequences of the attempted coup in Turkey.
"Of course, now there is a reason to believe that the contacts of Erdogan with our country may improve, but there is still a need to see what kind of policy the President of Turkey will carry out in relation to Russia. I would not undertake to predict, I can only say that his interest in the stabilization of the situation in Turkey is to develop good relations with Russia, possibly to place some kind of accent on it," he said, adding that full orientation toward Moscow will not happen in Ankara.
"Still, Turkey is a member of NATO, but not of the CSTO. Turkey is clearly not going to leave NATO and is not withdrawing its desire to integrate into the European Community from the agenda, at least formally this course remains. We cannot speak about some kind of super strategic reorientation,’’ Vitaly Naumkin warned, drawing attention to the dual position of the West, which still did not get on the side of the putschists.
"The West backed Erdogan, support for the Turkish president was announced in the United Nations, and nobody ever said that they doubted the illegitimacy of the actions of the military. Whatever Erdogan is, though the Turkish president has very complex, spoiled relations with the United States and Europe, he still remains the democratically elected head of state. Given the commitment of the Western countries to democratic norms, I think it would be strange if Erdogan was not supported. The West does not like him as a ruler, but the illegitimacy of the activities of the coup organizers is recognized by the whole world," the director of the Institute of Oriental Studies explained.
The expert drew attention to some contradictions in the version of Erdogan about the organization of the coup. "It is not clear whether the attempted coup was organized by Fethullah Gülen. Still, he has his own religious agenda, and the military, mainly, have the agenda of a secular state. I will remind that the military have long criticized Erdogan for the excessive Islamization of Turkey and violation of the secular foundations of the state – these were, in fact, statements made by the coup organizers. They are also dissatisfied with his dictatorial authoritarianism and attempts to establish a regime of personal power – that is a departure from democracy. These two points are the most important in their declarations," Vitaly Naumkin said.
"The putsch failed, but due to such a scale of arrests and repression it is easy to suggest that dissatisfaction with Erdogan will remain, and the situation will continue to be volatile for some time if the President of Turkey does not reach the right conclusions about the need to change his policy and its adjustment to the general requirements, which the putschists appealed for. Of course, the very problem-solving method of the military was illegitimate, and thus, the issues should not be solved by military coups,’’ the director of the Institute of Oriental Studies concluded.
