The preliminary agreement to cut oil output, reached yesterday by the OPEC countries for the first time in eight years, will undoubtedly affect oil prices, but only in the short term, since other negative factors may affect the situation in the future, the experts Valery Nesterov and Ivan Kapitonov told Vestnik Kavkaza.
Sberbank CIB analyst Valery Nesterov believes that there will be no price revolution. "After a brief recovery the price will fluctuate in accordance with market conditions, therefore, the price of Urals oil will be somewhere in the range of $46-52 per barrel in the next month or two," he said.
The expert stressed that the development of the situation depends on many factors. "It is not clear, whether the next meeting of OPEC in November will be successful. In addition, there is a great story of the OPEC member countries' non-compliance with established quotas, especially due to the fact that the oil monitoring is quite difficult. For example, the production estimate in a number of OPEC countries by the International Energy Agency diverges from the OPEC statistics," Nesterov explained.
According to him, it should be understood that the general oil freeze is not expected, because "the major manufacturers, primarily the United States, cannot join this agreement even in political terms." Norway, Mexico, Brazil, Canada, Australia and other major oil exporters in the world market will not join the freeze as well.
"If we talk about Russia, it can act in such a way as to create a certain nervousness among consumers in the market and, thus, maintain the price at advantageous for us and for the majority of OPEC level," Sberbank CIB analyst noted.
Nesterov noted that in the first place Russia is interested in filling the budget and the stable development of the oil industry.
An associate professor of the Graduate School of Corporate Management of RANEPA, senior researcher of IE RAS Ivan Kapitonov, also believes that the growth of quotations, which is related to the financial market's reaction to the Algerian agreement of OPEC, is unquestionable, but it will be effective only for a short time.
"In the future, it can be corrected by news from other regions, especially from the United States, which will increase its production on the background of forecasts of increased prices . And it will affect both the financial and the energy markets. No agreements were reached with the US, it is impossible: there are many companies now producing oil and gas in the shale industry. Therefore, it looks not very promising right now," the expert admitted.
On the other hand, according to Kapitonov, the fact that OPEC has already begun to take steps is positive, especially if we compare the results of the talks in Algeria with the meeting in Doha. Speaking about possible violations of the new restrictions by OPEC countries, aт associate professor of the Graduate School of Corporate Management of RANEPA said that they are unlikely to be significant.
The expert assessed chances of a general freeze of oil output levels as high. "I think it's rather real. All interested parties must agree, because all the oil producers tend to increase prices. And it is very important to find a compromise," the expert stressed.
Giving a forecast on oil prices in the near term, an associate professor of the Graduate School of Corporate Management of RANEPA defined $53 per barrel as maximum, which can be reached by oil.
"We will not see such a low price as before the price wars, although there will be fluctuations, as they are beneficial to the financial players. In the near future we should expect a rebound down to $46 per barrel. The magnitude of the subsequent bounce up will depend on the actions of the US," Ivan Kapitonov concluded.
