Russian experts in oil markets, deputy director of the Institute of Energy Strategy Alexei Belogoriev, director of the Center for Global Energy Markets, Energy Research Institute, Vyacheslav Kulagin, and professor of International Energy Business, State University of Oil and Gas, Dmitry Alexandrov, have discussed today the situation on the oil market that has developed globally, as well as in Russia, over the summer.
There are many reasons for concern: according to experts, the spread of the Syrian crisis onto neighboring countries may increase the price of oil to $150 a barrel. Russian oil exports over the past 8 months fell by 3% to 156 million tonnes, while export duties continue to grow, they have reached $400 per tonne. At the same time, there is new information on the reduction of Russian oil supplies to Belarus by 20%. Experts have analyzed the overall situation and commented on the future of the oil market.
Vyacheslav Kulagin stressed that the Syrian issue is indeed very serious, because "everything that rocks the Middle East always affects the market." He noted that, if it were only to cease the supply of oil from Syria, there would be no reason for panic: the country is not one of the major players in the market. However, the situation may touch on truly important players Iran, Israel, Qatar and Iraq.
According to Alexei Belogorev, even if the conflict grows further, the oil price will not go above $124 a barrel, and it could also be related to the fall of the dollar against other currencies. He recalled that when the conflict broke out in Iraq, the price fell as speculators stepped in.
Dmitry Alexandrov agreed that a future military operation against Syria will not make a significant contribution to the destabilization of the oil market. "This includes market regulators. Higher prices cool the economy and cause additional stress," the expert said. He also doubted that Russia will be able to significantly improve its situation.
