According to analysts, oil prices will continue to fall for some time and this will not support growth in the global economy, the ratings agency Moody's Investors Service expects.
In this case, oil exporters will suffer from low prices and oil importers' benefits will be eliminated by a number of factors. However, despite the presence of a large number of downside risks, there is no serious threat to the world economy, the ratings agency's analysts believe. However, Moody's has maintained its growth forecast for the GDP of the G20 at 3% in 2015 and 2016, which matches with the rate in 2014, Interfax reports.
India and the US stand out amongst some of the beneficiaries of lower oil prices.The ratings service lifted its U.S. forecast for 2015 growth in gross domestic product to 3.2%, from 3% in its last quarterly report. For 2016, it should stay strong at 2.8% due to the favorable economic environment for both consumers and companies on account of the lower energy prices.
Moody’s is forecasting that the GDP of the eurozone will increase just under 1% in 2015 and 1.3% in 2016. As for Russia, the recession this time will be deeper and longer than in 1998 and 2009, it will last until 2017.
The Director of the Center for International Energy Markets Studies at the Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Vyacheslav Kulagin, told 'Vestnik Kavkaza' what factors negate the benefits to countries of cheap oil imports. "In order to illustrate Moody's' words, just look at the market of China: the domestic market's prices have remained virtually unchanged. Europe has a similar pattern. There are several reasons. First, it's exchange rates, as, with the fall in oil prices, the dollar has strengthened against almost all major world currencies," Kulagin cited the first factor.According to him, the second factor is changes in the tax regime of the country. "If we talk about China, the amount of the withdrawal from sales of petroleum products increased for the growth of tax revenues to the budget. Oil in many sectors, especially transport, is virtually irreplaceable by other sources, it cannot be replaced, as in the electricity market, with gas and coal, so that the demand remains the same regardless of the price," the expert pointed out.
The Director of the Center for International Energy Markets Studies at the Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Vyacheslav Kulagin, told 'Vestnik Kavkaza' what factors negate the benefits to countries of cheap oil imports. "In order to illustrate Moody's' words, just look at the market of China: the domestic market's prices have remained virtually unchanged. Europe has a similar pattern. There are several reasons. First, it's exchange rates, as, with the fall in oil prices, the dollar has strengthened against almost all major world currencies," Kulagin cited the first factor.
According to him, the second factor is changes in the tax regime of the country. "If we talk about China, the amount of the withdrawal from sales of petroleum products increased for the growth of tax revenues to the budget. Oil in many sectors, especially transport, is virtually irreplaceable by other sources, it cannot be replaced, as in the electricity market, with gas and coal, so that the demand remains the same regardless of the price," the expert pointed out.
