The threat of a war in the Gulf forms a clearer attitude of the international community, showing inevitable confrontation. Leonid Gusev, a scientist from the institute for international studies of the MGIMO, told Vestnik Kavkaza that the Iran situation is complicated. It escalated fast, especially after the New Year. Iran may block the Hormuz Strait, a naval route for 40% of world oil transports, if an oil embargo is imposed. Prices for a barrel of oil may reach $200. Such dramatic increase of prices may become critical for global economy, the expert says.
But Iran’s threats are more verbal because US ships continue crossing the strait. The US benefit from a new war with Iran. Washington needs to draw attention of its population and the world society from the global economic recession, which may turn into a total collapse. The war with Iran would be started by Israel, already willing to attack it. But the greatest repercussions await other countries, rather than the US. It is part of the “controllable chaos” theory the US spoke about some years ago.
The US electoral campaign is another background for escalation of conflict, Gusev goes on. Some candidates, mainly republicans, speak for bombing Iran. President Barack Obama has a more pacifistic approach in his attempt to run for second terms of presidency.
Iran is trying to make the situation look advantageous. The urban population is more sensitive to Western values. Gusev added that he visited Iran himself and managed to get a look on what people there prefer to wear, listen and etc. There were protests after Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s becoming president in 2009. The local population is diverse. There are 25 million Azerbaijanis living in the North, the Arab population mainly inhabits southern provinces, in particular, Khuzestan, an area where the war with Iraq took place. Consolidation of Iran is necessary. The US and its allies are trying to escalate the conflict from the national aspect, Leonid Gusev says.
Iran will have hard times if a military conflict occurs. Iranian weapons are rather old, the state has complicated relations with its neighbors, Arab states and first of all Saudi Arabia. Leonid Gusev believes that chances for military actions are high.
