Will federalization save Ukraine?

Will federalization save Ukraine?

While the West does not recognize the results of the Crimean referendum, and  the Crimean authorities on the basis of this referendum declared their independence and appealed to Russia for the inclusion as the subject of the Russian Federation, Russian political scientists have come together to summarize the results of this concluded stage of the political confrontation around the peninsula and to outline likely prospects for future developments.


Thus, the director of the Center for Political Information, Alexei Mukhin, first drew attention to the fact that in the current political "track", where both Russia and the West happen to be, there are two possible directions for the development of bilateral relations: strengthening of the connections or their break. He also recalled that "in fact there is no opposition of Russia vs. West, as Western countries do not represent a political monolith." " There is no need to dismiss the current authorities in Kiev, even though now they are in prostration, because they failed to stop the disintegration processes, which , in fact, they themselves had started, and the situation will depend largely on them, too," says Mukhin.

Senior Fellow of the Institute of International Security Problems Alexey Fenenko expressed confidence that the political means to return Crimea to Ukraine will not succeed. "Without the large support of naval forces, Ukraine is unlikely to do anything by force, including the struggle for the south-eastern part of the country, which means Ukraine’s move to federalization. For this, there is such a force in Western Ukraine as the Ruthenians, who are associated more with Austria, and since November of last year they have been preparing a project for autonomy. Romania also has claims to Ukraine, and at some point Bucharest may exercise the right of protection of Northern Bukovina,” says Fenenko.

Caspian Cooperation Institute CEO Sergei Mikheyev expressed skepticism about the imminent completion, at least of the political crisis in Ukraine. "Yes, Presidential elections will be held on May 25, but they cannot succeed, because they will not be recognized by Russia and a part of Ukraine. Many political Ukrainian leaders have been or currently are under investigation, with the exception, perhaps, only of Tyagnibok and Klitschko, but then whom should the Ukrainians vote for?" the analyst wonders.

According to him, the main culprits of the current situation are those radicals who have been shouting "Glory to Ukraine!" for twenty years, which is still not understood in Kiev. "Where is democracy? Where is the justice? Where is the dream of which the new Maidan was talking? It remained in the past, while the radical neo-Nazis methodically destroy their country. The radicals are unable to understand that they are guilty themselves, so they are looking for a new enemy. Kiev will destroy the country and beyond, and the West will not fight for it," Mikheev expresses confidence.

Deputy Director of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Economic Forecasting, Alexander Shirov, in turn, focuses on the economic side of including Crimea in Russia. "Comparison between Krasnodar Territory and Crimea tells how far you can go away for 20 years. Both regions traditionally focus on agriculture and tourism, but the average salary in the Crimea is now $300, and in Krasnodar Territory it is $1000. Clearly, development of Crimea will require additional financial investments in roads and supply systems - about $2-3 billion in the short term," he estimates, adding that in the current situation one should not worry because of sanctions from the EU, as European capabilities are severely limited, but because of trade relations with Ukraine.

Shirov stresses that Russia would now be satisfied primarily with a predictable Ukraine, "and no matter where it looks, to the West or to Russia. We are primarily interested in stabilizing the situation. As I understand it, the Ukrainian leadership is ready to sign the whole package of the Association Agreement with the EU, and this event is being postponed by the EU itself, as it does not understand with whom it will have to build relations," he says.

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