The success of the Ukrainian protests has become a dream for oppositionists all over the world. However, they seem to neglect the fact that such coups can only happen to weak governments. The weakness of President Victor Yanukovych is doubtless. His actions were not decisive or elaborate: the first crackdown by the Berkut special police units on December 1 only made matters worse and provoked complaints about violence against the population.
Yanukovych failed to use any moment of peace to settle the conflict or to remove all radical elements before their numbers grew. The president was hesitating and wasting time, while his opponents were getting stronger every day. Eventually, he shamefully had to flee the country from people he could have stopped by giving just one order.
Not all countries are run by Yanukovych. Russia only strengthened its influence. However, there have been many rumours about analogues to the Ukrainian protests about to hit Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia.
Azerbaijan has increased its economic indexes five-fold in the past decade. The government fights corruption and focuses on social development in all sectors. Azerbaijani has neither the forces nor influence to organize anything similar to the Euromaidan. Moreover, Azerbaijan has been dynamically developing, while Ukraine was under a schism of two revolutions. People in Azerbaijan have no reasons to go onto the streets and protest. Azerbaijan has its own foreign policy, it lives in ethnic harmony and comparing President Ilham Aliyev with Yanukovych is simply impossible.
Georgia went through a transition of power 1.5 years ago without any Euromaidans. It had democratic elections followed by legitimate reforms. The inability of the new government to improve the situation in the country can certainly augment protests. The Georgian Dream coalition may lose power, but the chances of the United National Movement taking its power back are very unlikely.
Armenia is the most likely South Caucasus country to see a Maidan. It suffers from economic isolation, unemployment, departure of population, monopolization of business by functionaries, pension and insurance reforms. Political uncertainty, where President Serzh Sargsyan has not named his successor yet, only adds to the grave situation. Micromaidan protests happen in Yerevan every day and have no force to transform into mass protests.
The West is pretty much indifferent to the events in Armenia, as long as the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict remains frozen. The conflict halts development of the region and allows large geopolitical players to keep their roles of senior partners. Their positions may change after the events in Crimea.
Success of Ukrainian protests has become a dream for oppositionists all over the world. However, they seem to neglect the fact that such coups can only happen in weak governments. Weakness of President Victor Yanukovych is doubtless. His actions were not decisive or elaborate: the first crackdown by the Berkut special police units on December 1 only made matters worse and provoked complaints about violence against the population.Yanukovych failed to use any moment of peace to settle the conflict or to remove all radical elements before their numbers grew. The president was hesitating and wasting time, while his opponents were getting stronger every day. Eventually, he shamefully had fled the country from people he could have stopped by giving just one order.Not all countries are run by Yanukovych. Russia only strengthened its influence. However, there have been many rumours about analogues of Ukrainian protests about to hit Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia.Azerbaijan has increased its economic indexes five-fold in the past decade. The government fights corruption and focuses on social development in all sectors. Azerbaijani has neither forces nor influence to organize anything similar to the Euromaidan. Moreover, Azerbaijan has been dynamically developing while Ukraine was under a schism of two revolutions. People in Azerbaijan have no reasons to go on the streets and protests. Azerbaijan has its own foreign policy, it lives in ethnic harmony and comparing President Ilham Aliyev with Yanukovych is simply impossible.Georgia went through transition of power 1.5 years ago without any Euromaidans. It had democratic elections followed by legitimate reforms. Inability of the new government to improve the situation in the country can certainly augment protests. The Georgian Dream coalition may lose power, but chances of the United National Movement to take its power back are very unlikely. Armenia is the most likely South Caucasus country to see Maidan. It suffers from economic isolation, unemployment, departure of population, monopolization of business by functionaries, pension and insurance reforms. Political uncertainty, where President Serzh Sargsyanhas not named his successor yet, only adds to the grave situation. Micromaidan protests happened in Yerevan every day and have no force to transform into mass protests.The West is pretty much indifferent to the events in Armenia, as long as the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict remains frozen. The conflict halts development of the region and allows large geopolitical players to keep their roles of senior partners. Their positions may change after the events in Crimea
