The history of the almost year-long International Peace Conference on a Syrian settlement, which received the name Geneva -2, came to an end when UN Secretary General Ban ki-Moon spoke about the launch of the new Geneva-3 conference. "The Geneva -2 Conference did not produce many prospects, and we are now working hard on the Geneva- 3 meeting. This will require the support of key actors such as the U.S. and Russia - they must influence all the parties to come to those negotiations with an honest and constructive spirit," Ban said.
As the director of the Center for Public Policy Research Vladimir Yevseyev told VK, Geneva-3 will take long to prepare. "This conference should most likely take place in the fall. Firstly, in May-June Syria will hold presidential elections. The West, of course, will not recognize their legitimacy under any circumstances, but to hold such a conference before the elections makes no sense. Secondly, this international event simply needs to cook long enough and the organization does not have enough time before the fall," he said.
"In the fall we should expect changes in the relations between states that have made the biggest impact on the Syrian conflict. For example, the biggest problem in Syria is now Iranian-Saudi relations. The Iranians hope that the foreign policy behavior of the Saudis will be more pragmatic, which could at least pose the question of limiting the conflict in Syria," Yevseev said.
"There is another time factor. With the current US-Russian confrontation, a Geneva-3 conference can't take place. I hope the situation will improve by the fall, and only after that will it be possible to convene a conference. Moreover, for Geneva -3 to bring some success, the Americans must consent to the participation of Iran," the analyst believes.
Until Damascus and the rebels, Tehran and Riyadh, Moscow and Washington are ready to compromise it is difficult to count on the success of the conference, concluded the analyst.