The first round of talks of six powers on Iran in New York about the project of a possible resolution on the questions of additional sanctions against Teheran has not brought accordance to this group of the countries exactly as it had been expected. The only obvious result has been the agreement to continue talks. This was communicated by the diplomats of the six countries (Russia, USA, China, Uk, France and Germany) after the six hours meeting in the permanent mission of Great Britain in the UN.
Before the beginning of the talks western countries wich had been insisting in imposing addistional sanctions on Iran considered the main success of the meeting the fact that China would participate in them. Earlier China had been refusing even a possibility of discussing the topic of sanctions for many months. Only in the second part of March a chinese representative took part in two rounds of phone talks of the political directors of the ministry of foreign affairs of the six powers on the Iranian problem. The meeting in New York has been the first discussion where permanent representatives of the six powers could discuss the project of the resolution eveloped by the American delegation. The fact that not particular questions but the very text of the resolution had been discussed was approved by assistant permanent representative of Germany Martin Ney.
In the matter of fact the positions of Russia and even more of China heve been of the greatest interst to everyone. China still does not agree with the idea of imposing of additional sanctions though does not absolutely exclude such a pissibility. The first two representatives which went out from the building of the British missinon to the journalsts were ones from China and Russia and the both affirmed that the positions of their countries did not changed and that they insisted on continuing of talks with Iran and on the solution af the problem of nriched uranium by diplomatic means and not by means of sanctions.
'i think that nobady realy wants sanctions, everybody wants a diplomatic solution. different proposals on this point have been already made. If Iran wants to talk it must start talking' - the Russian representative Churkin said.
'We have talked and the process of consulting is going on. China is still supporting a double approach to the solution of Iranian nuclear problem. Consulting is focused on the double approach. Currently the double approach is focusing on the diplomacy' - the Chinese permanent representative said.
The double approach which is the main strategy of the six powers means pressing on Teheran in case of it's denying to talk and in encouraging if it agrees to talk. Russia and China think that there are still opportunities and time to talk. It is notable that just before the meeting in New York the main negotiator from Iran came to Beijing, though the details of his visit remain unknown.
At the same time the six powers do not change their proposal on one of the contradictionary points. The proposal is to exchange Iranian low-enriched uranium into Russian and French nuclear fuel producted for the Iranian scientific reactor.
During the meeting in Geneve on the 1st of October 2009 Iran and the six powers came to an agreement consisting in exchange of the Iranian low-enriched uranium (3.5%) into 20% enriched fuel for the Teheran scientific reactor. Then IAEA developed and presented concrete project of exgange agreement.
But later Iran refused this bargain. In the beginning of February 2010 Iranian offitials announced that Iran had started to enrich uranium on its territory and two days later, on February 11, the president Mahmud Ahmadinejad declared that the first portion of enriched uranium had been produced on the factory in Natanz. The decision of the Iranian government to start enriching of uranium on their owns was denounced by the world community including the six forces.
Lee Baodun has approved that China will continue to participate in the talks on the Iranian nuclear problem among the six forces in New York on the level of permanent representatives. According to his words, the amabassadors can meet again during the next week. The same thing has been approved by the Russian representative in the UN Vitaliy Churkin and Condoleezza Rice. Rice also added that it is also possible to cunduct the discussions independantly between different capitals alongside with the talks in New York.
At the same time a european diplomat who had participated in the talks said that a new meeting in New York would be possible before the end of this week, but ona can suppose that the new round is going to take place without the permanent representatives and only on the level of experts.
Anyways, an agreement on the level of the six forces has not been yet achieved. Without one the question of sanctions may not be discussed on the level of the UNSC. Moreover, the balance of forces in the UNSC is not quite clear and does not guarantee imposing of sanctions on Iran to the USA.
Two terms are required for passing the resolution in the UNSC: no one of the five permanent members (Russia, China, USA, France, UK) must vote against it, and at least fifteen votes must be given for it. If Russia and China abstain from voting everything will depend on the ten non-permanent members. And it is not a fact that the USA, UK and France will find six mor votes to pass the resolution.
09.04.2010
