Who needs war in Karabakh?

17 Armenian and 3 Azerbaijani soldiers have died in Nagorno-Karabakh throughout January. Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan said at a solemn session dedicated to the 23rd anniversary of the Armenian Army yesterday that the country was mourning its losses and Azerbaijan would pay for the life of every Armenian soldier killed. The president added that symmetrical responses to asymmetrical losses would be substituted by asymmetrical responses. “Hotshots should expect surprises,” Sargsyan warned. 

Political analyst Sergey Markov explained that tensions on the contact line of forces was a reaction to rising instability in the post-Soviet space and Ukraine. The U.S., Russia and the EU act unpredictably and roughly, he believes, contributing to the tense atmosphere. Markov relates Sargsyan’s threats to the situation within Armenia. The tense situation requires bellicose rhetoric to appeal to voters.

Andrey Petrov, deputy head of the Information and Analysis Center of the M.V. Lomonosov MSU, reminded that Azerbaijan was preparing to host the first European Olympic Games in 2015, an event equally important as the Winter Olympic Games for Russia. A war would ruin them, regardless of who violates the ceasefire and the Bishkek Protocol, in his opinion. Petrov has no doubts that Armenia is behind the escalations. In his words, Armenia uses the conflict as an instrument of loyalty and consolidation of citizens, while the authority of the government was going downhill. He added that Armenia was falling way behind Azerbaijan in terms of economic and social development. 

The Armenian authorities need at least any victory, for example, initiation of events related to the 100th anniversary of the Armenian genocide followed by the failure of the first European Games, Petrov assumes. The expert predicts that, should his assumptions be true, the tensions will continue rising in the next three months, culminating in May. International mediators should prevent a real war on the frontline.

17 Armenian and 3 Azerbaijani soldiers have died in Nagorno-Karabakh throughout January. Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan said at a solemn session dedicated to the 23rd anniversary of the Armenian Army yesterday that the country was mourning its losses and Azerbaijan would pay for the life of every Armenian soldier killed. The president added that symmetrical responses to asymmetrical losses would be substituted by asymmetrical responses. “Hotshots should expect surprises,” Sargsyan warned.Political analyst Sergey Markov explained that tensions on the contact line of forces was a reaction to rising instability in the post-Soviet space and Ukraine. The U.S., Russia and the EU act unpredictably and roughly, he believes, contributing to the tense atmosphere. Markov relates Sargsyan’s threats to the situation within Armenia. The tense situation requires bellicose rhetoric to appeal to voters.Andrey Petrov, deputy head of the Information and Analysis Center of the M.V. Lomonosov MSU, reminded that Azerbaijan was preparing to host the first European Olympic Games in 2015, an event equally important as the Winter Olympic Games for Russia. A war would ruin them regardless of who violates the ceasefire and the Bishkek Protocol, in his opinion.Petrov has no doubts that Armenia is behind the escalations. In his words, Armenia uses the conflict as an instrument of loyalty and consolidation of citizens while the authority of the government was going downhill. He added that Armenia was falling way behind Azerbaijan in terms of economic and social development. Armenian authorities need at least any victory, for example, initiation of events related to the 100th anniversary of the Armenian genocide followed by failure of the first European Games, Petrov assumes.The expert predicts that, should his assumptions be true, the tensions will continue rising in the next three months, culminating in May. International mediators should prevent a real war on the frontl