Since the Taliban seized power in Afghanistan, the international community is facing two serious problems. The first is recognition/nonrecognition of the new regime in Kabul. The second is the migration issue. Considering that the bordering countries are in no hurry to accept refugees, the main burden falls on the Western states that rushed to announce the need to evacuate all those who wish.
G7 Summit and situation on the ground
Yesterday, on August 24, an emergency online meeting of the G7 countries was held with the participation of the leaders from the US, Canada, France, Germany, Italy and Great Britain. It was also attended by NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, European Council President Charles Michel, President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen and UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. The G7 countries agreed on a unified nonrecognition of the Taliban (a movement banned in the Russian Federation). As for the Afghan refugees, the EU and the US are ready to host everyone wishing to leave Afghanistan.
The only issue lacking solidarity is the timing of the troops' withdrawal. US President Joseph Biden announced that by August 31, all foreign troops must leave Afghanistan. France, Great Britain and Germany, realizing they won’t be able to evacuate all the refugees by the end of August, ask to extend the deadline.
The situation on the ground is becoming more extreme with every passing day. 10 days before the summit, about 60,000 people were evacuated from Afghanistan - both foreigners and Afghans who had worked for the armed forces of the American Coalition for 20 years. By the morning of August 24, 37 US military aircraft and 57 planes of allied countries with more than 20,000 people on board flew from Kabul. The United States has already received 70,000 Afghans, Germany - over 4,000. Great Britain promises to accept 20,000 refugees, but not all this year. Evacuated Afghans first are stationed at military bases in Germany, and from there they are transported to the US.
Why are Afghans leaving their homeland?
There are three main reasons for this. First, citizens and officials who have collaborated with the pro-American administration fear retaliation by the Taliban. Second, some citizens do not see any prospects under the harsh Sharia regime that restricts the rights of women and students. Third, the economic situation in Afghanistan can worsen anytime. The country already ranks last in terms of GDP per capita, and with international isolation (if the Taliban is not recognized), the situation will become even more despairing.
Economic stability has already been eroded. This year, another deadly drought struck the country, destroying 40% of the crops. The UN estimates that 20 million people will need humanitarian assistance. The current food supply will be depleted by September. If the West leaves and does not provide humanitarian aid to the Taliban, the humanitarian catastrophe in the country won’t be avoided. Germany has already pledged to provide 600 million euros. However, the lack of commercial flights has hampered the shipment of food and medicine. The banking system is currently blocked. Foreign banks have terminated their cooperation with local counterparties. The IMF froze 370 million dollars tranche due to nonrecognition of the Taliban. In such conditions, the number of those wishing to live a life of Rilley in Germany and Austria is growing every day.
The Taliban do not approve of the West’s evacuation efforts. It has already threatened with "consequences" and "reaction" if the US and its allies do not withdraw from the country by August 31. The movement banned Afghans from entering Hamid Karzai International Airport. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson responded with a demand from the Taliban "to guarantee safe passage until August 31 and beyond ... for those who want to leave the country.” If the new rulers of Afghanistan do not agree to this, then, according to Johnson, the G7 has "very significant leverage - economic, diplomatic and political."
Europe hopes for Russia's support
Meanwhile, the Taliban continue to cosy up to Turkey, China and Russia. After announcing Ankara as the "main partner", the representative of the organization's political office in Qatar, Mohammad Naim, praised good relations with Moscow and Beijing. "China is a neighbouring country, and we have good relations. The same applies to Russia." These curtsies provoke the quiet envy of NATO leaders. At the G7 online summit, Johnson warned that Russia and China would become the key actors in Afghanistan after the US withdrawal.
At the same time, the Europeans admit that it will be difficult to complete the safe evacuation of refugees without Russia’s support. British Foreign Minister Dominic Raab recently said: ”We are going to have bring in countries with a potentially moderating influence like Russia and China, however uncomfortable that is.” At the recent meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, German Chancellor Angela Merkel asked him to assist with humanitarian aid and evacuation of German servicemen. Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi asked to postpone the G20 summit scheduled for October to discuss Afghanistan - apparently, the EU needs China, Russia and Turkey’s support.
The bottom line is that the EU and the US are doing a bunk and hope that Russia and China will help them. Soon will see how Putin and his Chinese partner Xi Jinping will respond to NATO's request.
