Russia, Turkey, Iran strengthen their positions in the Middle East

Mamikon Babayan, exclusively for Vestnik Kavkaza
Russia, Turkey, Iran strengthen their positions in the Middle East

Tabriz is going to host Russian-Turkish-Iranian summit in the beginning of September. Southern direction is of great importance for Russia, since during preparation for reconstruction of post-war Syria Moscow has a chance to build new trilateral format of relations with Turkey and Iran, as well as ease tensions in Syria, which have increased significantly in recent months.

Successful military operation in Syria allowed Russia to achieve significant influence in the entire Middle East. It's obvious that the peak of military operation has already been passed and it's necessary to eliminate remaining terrorist groups, simultaneously restoring Syria's statehood. However, Russia's interests are much broader. It wants to create a special stability belt, which can be based on relations with Turkey, Iran and the Arab countries.

Historically, Iran and Turkey are rivals in the region. Despite this, Tehran praised Ankara's current policy towards the United States. Western policy poses a great danger to Turkey, a strong Islamic republic, since the US may pursue a change of power in Muslim countries in order to contain their economic potential. This can affect both Iran and Turkey.

There was a coup in Turkey in 1960, influenced by the US. 16 Turkish officers who carried out the coup underwent secret training under the guidance of US military instructors in 1948 as part of the formation of anti-communist sabotage organization. As a result, Turkish Prime Minister Adnan Menderes was overthrown and later killed. Turkey is gradually realizing that the West is manipulating it for its own interests.

Of course, there are disputes between these countries, especially in Transcaucasia. Nevertheless, Moscow, Ankara and Tehran have no unresolvable conflicts in this region or in general. Despite all existing disputes and ambitions, countries can achieve so much more together without fighting among each other.

Southern direction is important for Russia mainly because of the North-South transport corridor, huge trade potential, construction of Russian nuclear power plants, as well as fight against terrorism. Obviously, Moscow won't be able to completely eliminate terrorist threat in Syria without Turkish and Iranian support. Triumvirate of Turkey, Russia and Iran will determine the face of post-war Syria. Interest of Russia, Turkey and Iran in preserving territorial integrity of Syria can become a basis for this cooperation. Outcome of the war in Syria will be determined by relations in the Moscow-Ankara-Tehran triangle.

Current regime in Syria is the most favorable for Russia and Iran. Moscow's and Tehran's support indicate that there won't be a shift of power in Syria. Moscow believes that it can always reach an agreement with Iran. Mutual understanding will allow to implement the North-South transport corridor across the Caspian Sea to the Persian Gulf, stop using dollars in mutual trade between three countries, as well as finally speed up the process of making anti-Asad opposition participate in peace process.

All three countries have pretty complicated relations with the West. Iran's conflict with the United States lasts many years, Russia is challenging Washington's hegemony in the Middle East, and Turkey is confidently becoming an independent regional center. However, if Tehran decides to continue and even expand its military presence in Syria (as well as create naval bases on the Mediterranean coast), it may find itself in a dangerous isolation. In this case, triumvirate won't survive, Turkey won't withdraw its armed forces from Syria, Russia will remain in Syria for a long time. That's why current format of cooperation becomes irreplaceable, since it can contribute to fast restoration of balance of power in the entire Middle East.

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