Biden decided on the agenda of the meeting with Putin. Vestnik Kavkaza examined what will American leader say to his Russian colleague, and is it possible to expect improvement of relations.
A little more than two weeks remain until one of the most important meetings of world politics. On June 16, US President Joseph Biden will host the first summit in Geneva with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. I must say that the very fact of the meeting is already a great progress. Remember how not long ago, when Biden became president, he imposed ever tougher sanctions against Russia, put Moscow on the list of enemies, and even insulted Vladimir Putin, calling him a "murderer."
However, the tough, but moderately pragmatic democrat realized that speaking from a position of strength would not lead to anything good. Therefore, in mid-April I decided to call the Kremlin. This call turned out to be very timely, because in those days the tension in the east of Ukraine reached its maximum, and if it were not for Biden's words that the conflict should be resolved peacefully, it is not known whether the Ukrainian side would have stopped or not. When Biden realized that Zelensky would not have an easy walk in the Donbass, he turned to Putin, and, in fact, just after that conversation, the situation began to stabilize. Zelensky, apparently on a tip from Biden, announced his unwillingness to allow a war with the DPR and LPR.
In the same telephone conversation, Biden suggested that Putin meet. Please note that the initiative came from the American side. This means that Washington needed the summit more. At the same time, some experts rightly noted that initiating a meeting does not mean meeting halfway, that is, Biden will try to push his line and force Russia to make concessions. "... from old memory we believe that a meeting, especially at the highest level, is to reduce tensions and level relations. But why is the opposite impossible? A demonstration of superiority and confidence," the Russia in Global Affairs magazine analyzed.
If you look at the news of the last day, then, by and large, the political scientist Fyodor Lukyanov was right. As reported by Reuters, Biden is going to tell Putin that Washington will not allow him to violate human rights. "In a couple of weeks, I will meet with President Putin in Geneva, and I will make it clear that we will not be inactive and allow violations of [human] rights," the White House quoted the Reuters news agency.
According to the Kremlin, Putin and Biden will not discuss human rights in Russia, but in general bilateral relations, strategic stability, the fight against coronavirus and the resolution of regional conflicts. If the negotiations proceed along the track on which Biden is focusing, then we can say that the summit will turn out to be meaningless and fruitless. After all, Washington demands unconditionally to release Alexei Navalny. If Putin agrees to this, then such a step will not only be inconsistent on the part of the Russian leadership, but also a demonstration of weakness.
Therefore, obviously, all of Biden's demands on human rights will be rejected out of the box. The US requests to put pressure on Lukashenko to release the founder of NEXTA will lead to the same result - Putin is completely on the side of his ally. But if Biden is pragmatic and does not make other topics dependent on the release of Navalny, then the result may be with a plus sign.
On the issue of global security, Biden and Putin have many points of contact. It is not excluded that they can agree on the resuscitation of agreements - the Treaty on Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles (INF Treaty) and the Open Skies Treaty (OON). We managed to somehow agree on START-3. There are also no big contradictions in the fight against pandemic and climate protection. Both Russia and the United States do not question global warming and advocate universal vaccination.
As for conflicts, there are many controversial issues. For example, in the same Syria, where the United States supports the opposition and stimulates Kurdish separatism, and Russia is entirely on the side of the government of Bashar al-Assad. However, this does not prevent us from agreeing on stabilization in Afghanistan, from where the US has already begun to withdraw its troops, and the Arab-Israeli conflict, where Moscow and Washington support the "two states" principle.
We will find out which scenario Biden will choose on June 16. The outcome of the negotiations will depend on his flexibility and willingness to solve problems separately, rather than in one package.
