An expert on problems of military and national security, Rachya Arzumanyan, told VK about the problems of Armenia's internal and external security and the collective security of the South Caucasus.
- Does a collective security system in the South Caucasus exist? If yes, please comment on its weak points.
- A collective security system in the South Caucasus does exist. It was formed naturally, as without it our region would find itself in a situation of permanent war and conflicts. As for the vulnerability of the South Caucasus, this is connected with the artificial borders of the region, which appeared after the collapse of the Soviet Union. It is important that the South Caucasus is a part of the Caucasus and the Black-Caspian Seas region, which is the center of rivalry between Russian and the West. The Caucasus is a part of the Big Middle East, where the Arab revolutions are taking place. In this context Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan and other partially-recognized states of the South Caucasus, which got used to looking at each other only, they could find themselves in a situation where they need to react to foreign threats. In this context the South Caucasus can pay less attention to more serious threats than it has faced before.
It should be admitted that the South Caucasus is still a difficult region at the crossroads of East and West, North and South. There cannot be simple decisions, if they are not supported by a superpower, as it was in the early 20th century, when the USSR was born. Could similar simple decisions and direct involvment of any geopolitical power center into the region take place in the early 21st century? It is doubtful, but our historical experience shows that anything is possible.
- Do the authorities of Armenia consider the long-term geopolitical trends and prospects in new realities in the security environment of the 21st century? Is Armenia involved harmoniously in the environment?
- Unfortunately, the system of national security of Armenia is strictly connected with the personal factor, and a lot depends on members of the top military-political administration. The national security system of Armenia is too dependent on a person. This is unacceptable, but it is reality. It cannot be changed by revolutionary methods. Such a system is too vulnerable, if it is headed by weak-willed, inexperienced leaders, who have few ideas on what the current Armenian society is like. Our republic cannot be involved in the security environment of the 21st century confidently, as it is very young.
As for consideration of long-term trends, first of all, certain human resources and potential are needed: a school, which cannot be formed for several years or even decades. In this situation targeted steps on establishing Armenia’s own system of national security are urgent. It is important for the system to be less dependent on the personal factor. Armenia has no natural allies with such experience, which are ready to share with it. We have to establish and develop a national security system by ourselves.
- What are possible internal and external influences on the security environment of Armenia?
- We have to admit that for many decades the Armenian people will be threatened by the intentions and activities of Turkey and Azerbaijan. Armenia has no ability to influence the attitude of these countries to the Armenian people in the medium and long term. These factors are constants for the Armenian security environment, which should be considered. However, the environment includes not only foreign, but also internal aspects and processes, which can be controlled and changed in favor of improving the defensive capacity of Armenia.
Stagnation in the economy and negative tendencies in the social and psychological spheres of society influence the security system. Armenia can ill afford the luxury of a weak economy and a socially unjust society.
- As for relations between Armenia and Turkey, can we forecast the future route of developments, considering the historical, political and military realities of the region?
- It is always very difficult to forecast. In our world we can only clearly define our position, the targets and objectives of foreign and internal policy. What does Armenia want in the 21st century, what aims does it have, what are the national interests, targets and objectives of the Armenian people? During the calm period of 2000-2008 we could afford not to formulate and not to answer such questions. But today a clear definition of direction in our policy is urgent. A deadlock is not the worst situation in the 21st century. The point is not in the thoughts and proposals by Turkey and other countries, but in the aims and achievements of Armenia.
- What is the possible consequence of the progressing arms race between Armenia and Azerbaijan, considering that both sides are sacrificing opportunities for social and economic development and consolidation of societies?
- An arms race is a multisided process, which influences the social and economic situation in the countries that have to spend a significant portion of their national resources into the race. International experience shows that first of all social and educational sectors suffer as a result of it. But does the Armenian side have a choice? Unfortunately, it hasn’t. Armenian society is ready to accept the price for development and a dignified life in an independent state. I don’t think an arms race and large spending on defense are critical problems for Armenia. Internal and external threats are much more dangerous.
Interview by David Stepanyan, Yerevan. Exclusively to VK
