Syria is still in the focus of international attention. For 10 months a full-scale civil war has been developing there. Despite growing international pressure, multiple mediation missions and initiatives, there is no way out of the crisis. The probable reason for this is that most of the geopolitical players have their own interests and priorities.
A clear example of this are the unsuccessful efforts by the UN Security Council to adopt an adequate resolution on Syria, which could stop the violence in the country. Another attempt taken on January 27th failed. This time Rabat proposed a new resolution. The permanent envoy of Morocco, Muhamed Lulishki, said the project of the resolution considered “the whole previously done work”, “integrates decisions” by the Arab League (LAS) on Syria and presupposes a peaceful settlement of the problem and a cessation of the violence. He admitted the text should be discussed, and Morocco is ready for a compromise. However, the Moroccan envoy didn’t predict when the UN Security Council would hold a vote.
Nevertheless, it is already known that the Moroccan project hasn’t satisfied Moscow, which has a veto on the Security Council. “The presented project of the resolution couldn’t be a basis for a way out of the situation, but we are ready to continue working,” the permanent envoy of Russia to the UN Vitaly Churov said, RIA Novosti reports. The Russian Ministry for Foreign Affairs thinks that Morocco and the West hastened to propose the resolution, as diplomats have had no opportunity to consider the report by the LAS observers’ mission. The deputy foreign minister of Russia, Gennady Gatilov, confirmed that Russia wouldn’t support the Morocco project: “We see no possibility for voting on a discordant project. The project proposed by the West doesn’t take into account our position. For example, it concerns rejection of military interference: there are references to the LAS sanctions and no references to adherence to the UN Charter. There is a prescript that if the resolution isn’t implemented in 15 days, additional measures might be considered. What are the measures? Such a project is unacceptable to us. We insist on our project being considered one more time, as several rounds of discussions have been held already.”
The Russian resolution “takes into account amendments of the Western colleagues,” according to the official representative of the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Russia, Alexander Lukashevich. The question is what exactly “amendments of the Western colleagues” have been taken into account by Russian diplomats. The main intrigue is about possibility of launching sanctions against Bashar Assad’s government. Paris and Washington see no sense in “tame resolutions.” On the contrary Russia doesn’t want to give green light to the international pressure on Assad. Considering statements by Russian top diplomats, there are no chances Russia will change its position on the Syrian problem in the UN SC. There is a tiny hope that Moscow could agree on economic sanctions, but experts are not optimistic on the issue. At the same time, Russia and Syria signed a contract on export of 36 Russian operational trainers YaK-130 to Damascus. The deputy foreign minister of Russia, Mikhail Bogdanov, commented on it clearly: “Russia has always provided military-technical cooperation with Syria, and we will develop it.”
Western experts rely on Arab diplomacy. The head of the Middle East department of the American State Department, Jeffrey Feltman, told German Süddeutsche Zeitung that “the best chance for adoption of the resolution could be a unity and insistence of the Arabs on the Syrian issue.” Only the resolution by the Arab countries could establish an opportunity for shifting power in the country, the American diplomat thinks. Considering the fact that oil monarchies of the Persian Gulf do not hide their desire to overthrow Bashar Assad, it appears Washington has forces in “the Arab street,” which can be relied on. However, neither Damascus nor Moscow wants to hear about shifting of power in the country. On October 4th, 2011, Russia and China, using their veto right, signaled that there will be no repetition of the Libyan scenario in Syria. It should be noted that all countries of the LAS (except Lebanon and Iraq, which are influenced by Tehran) follow the US policy. Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Hamad Ben Halifa Tani supported launching of military contingent of the Arab countries to Syria. It might be a stable instrument for fulfillment of Washington’s plans in Syria, i.e. overthrowing of Bashar Assad’s regime. It is interesting that Qatar’s Emir is the plenipotentiary envoy of the LAS in Syria. Moreover, recently the LAS decided to cancel activity of the observers’ mission in Syria. The reason for it is continuation of violence by the government of Bashar Assad against Syrian demonstrators. According to the UN, during the civil confrontation in Syria 5400 people were killed. Meanwhile, the general secretary of the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf (CCASG), Rashid Al Zayani, will visit Brussels, where he will meet the general secretary of the NATO Anders Fogh Rasmussen.
Unlike the LAS, where Lebanon and Iraq provide interests of Tehran, only Arab monarchies, allies of the US, enter the CCASG: Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE, Oman and Saudi Arabia. The latest is seriously concerned with improvement of the Iranian factor in the region. It shouldn’t be expelled that the Arab countries of the CCASG prepare an alternative platform for interference with the Syrian situation. At least, if the UN SC doesn’t adopt the resolution on Syria, the scenario of military intrusion without the UN permission is possible.
This situation puts Moscow and Beijing in front of a difficult choice. Discussion of the Syrian problem by Lavrov and his Turkish colleague Ahmet Davutoglu and readiness of Moscow for dialogue with the Syrian opposition means that Russia is developing variants of behavior in case of Assad’s overthrowing. And this variant is quite possible. However, the choice is Moscow’s, which needs to maintain its interests in Syria anyway.
Orkhan Sattarov. Exclusively to VK
