By Orkhan Sattarov, exclusively to VK
The cancellation of the ‘criminalization of genocide denial’ bill by French Constitutional Council dotted all the ‘i’s’ in the heated discussion of this scandalous bill called ‘pro-Armenian’ by Baku and Ankara. For obvious reasons this discussion was at the center of public attention not only in France itself, but also in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkey. Finally, the Constitutional Council decided that this bill is an ‘unconstitutional encroachment upon the freedom of discussion and opinion’. However, the bench stressed that one shouldn’t expect any revisions of the similar ‘Holocaust denial’ law enacted in 1990. The tragedy of the Jewish people was given an unequivocal legal assessment by the international community, while the same can’t be said about the events of 1915-1917 that took place in the Ottoman Empire.
So what are the consequences of this dubious political enterprise of President Sarkozy and the Armenian lobby that now has failed once and for all?
French-Turkish relations that were going through a serious crisis will most likely be lifted to their previous high level again. The recent statement by the Turkish FM supports this suggestion: Ahmet Davutoglu said that Turkey welcomes the decision of the Constitutional bench and announced the restoration of diplomatic and economic relations with France. Such a reaction was easy to expect, as the Council virtually eliminated the reason for the conflict. Despite the harsh rhetoric of the Turkish government, it didn’t take any actual harsh steps and had the patience to wait for the final decision on the bill.
Azerbaijan, which supported Turkey in this disagreement, can also breathe again. But what is even more important, this cancellation of the ‘genocide bill’ provides great relief to Paris itself. For example, Baku suggested that France should be excluded from the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs that mediate the Karabakh conflict. Of course, Azerbaijan couldn’t have put this issue on the official agenda, but this official display of mistrust in Paris would most likely damage the international image of France. Whose authority would suffer the most in a situation like this is an open question. And of course Paris was very concerned about the possible consequences to the gas policy of Azerbaijan.
Baku managed to express firm support for its ally without making any excessively harsh statements or anti-French demarches. According to Ali Hassanov, the head of the social-political issues department of the Presidential Administration of Azerbaijan, Azerbaijan fully supported its ally against the unfair law, but chose to act coolly, without emotions or radical steps.
Another important aspect is the activation of the Turkish and Azeri lobbies in France in the past few months. Also, a delegation of French senators opposed to the ‘genocide bill’ visited Baku in February. The creation of such ties will certainly benefit the Turkish and Azeri lobbies in France in the future.
For Armenia, this decision by the French bench has more of a symbolic meaning and won’t have any actual effect on French-Armenian relations. Some experts suggested that Armenia put forward the genocide issue only to pressure Turkey into ratifying the Zürich protocols – in other words, into opening the border. Even if this suggestion has a certain truth to it, Sarkozy was of no help in this design. On the other hand, the Constitutional Council of France created a precedent that could be used by other states in the future if the issue of ‘Armenian genocide denial criminalization’ would be ever put forward again. Even though the Armenians expected the opposite decision from the court, they understood very well that the decision would create a precedent.
There is a persistent desire of President Sarkozy to revive the banned project. He has already charged the government with preparing a new version of the bill. However, it is unlikely that this new project would be discussed by both Chambers of the Parliament before the presidential elections. It is even less likely that it would be approved by Constitution Court. This new initiative of Sarlozy leaves no room for doubt: this whole project is nothing but a pre-election reverent gesture towards French citizens of Armenian origin made by a President whose popular support is fading by day. Was this attempt to regain popularity in any way successful? Sarkozy’s co-party members stood against the bill, while many rival party members supported it, thus drawing off the Armenian voters. And in any case this ‘Armenian epopee’ ended in a complete failure, and this cannot go unnoticed. So this reverent gesture towards Armenian voters made by Sarkozy has every chance of being the last one.
