Permanent tension around the Iranian nuclear program remains in place. Neither diplomatic efforts nor numerous economic sanctions help in improving the situation. Sanctions proved their ineffectiveness, which was predicted by experts. Let us explain. The point is not in effectiveness of sanctions as damage to Iranian economy – of course, economy suffers, and common citizens of Iran suffer too. Last week the processing company SWIFT decided to stop providing Iranian banks with services. And it was another step within economic pressure on the IRI.
However, economic isolation of Iran is only an instrument for achieving a clear political target – Iran’s refusal from nuclear development, which could be used for nuclear armament creation. From this point of view we should admit that economic pressure on Tehran failed. Moreover, the existing sanctions produce only vague effect, as the Iranian economy isn’t based on the European market only. And such important economic partners as China and India are not eager to stop cooperation with Tehran, even though they try to benefit from the situation. Thus, Western hopes that sanctions would shake the Mullahs regime internally weren’t fulfilled - at least yet.
This fact is confirmed by the results of the Parliamentary elections, which were held in May. We remind you that conservators won them due to anti-Western attitudes in the country. The so-called “reformers” from the Green Movement boycotted the elections and found themselves on a wayside of the political life. Iranian conservators have combative mood. The chairman of the foreign political committee of the IRI parliament Alakheddin Borudsherdi said “the parliament won’t let the government yield in the sphere of the Iranian nuclear program.” Western policies led to legitimate and extremely conservative parliament of Iran, which won’t let the government meet the West halfway. By the way the IRI government is not eager to compromise with the West.
All hopes for diplomatic settlement of the situation are connected with reviving of negotiations with Iran within the “six” format. “We hope that Iran steps into a stable process of constructive dialogue that provides real progress in solving the problem of its nuclear program,” Catherine Ashton’s statement agreed with Russia, the USA, China, France, Germany and the UK says, RIA Novosti reported.
But experience of previous years gives no reasons for optimism and successful results of the current policy in the sphere of reviving negotiations in the “six” format. A date and a place of the next round of the negotiations haven’t been agreed yet. The negotiations could continue for months, while Tehran would come closer to creation of nuclear armament.
Concerns of the international society are heated by the IAEA information spread by the mass media that Iran tested a neutron detonator in Parchin. It is thought Iran tries to liquidate remains of radiation after testing a neutron detonator in the military complex Parchin, Associated Press reported citing unnamed IAEA experts. Trucks and other vehicles are working at the facility for hiding remains of testing the equipment that is used for providing nuclear explosion, two experts noted. Another diplomat didn’t confirm it, but said that any efforts to test a neutron detonator could be provided only within the program of nuclear armament development. On March 16 the mission of Iran in the IAEA reported that Tehran promised to accept inspectors of the agency to Parchin facility.
Most of all the prospect of creation of Iranian nuclear armament threatens Israel, as it considers nuclear Iran as “existential threat to the Jewish state.” The defense minister of Israel Ekhud Barak said that in few months Iran could reach “the zone of immunity.” It means that Iranian nuclear facilities would be safely defended from air attacks. It is obvious that Israel plans to launch a military strike on Iran before “it would be too late,” as Barak said. President of the USA Barak Obama couldn’t receive guarantees from Premier of Israel Netanyahu that Israel wouldn’t start a military campaign by its own. The US understands that independent activity of Israel will lead to involving of America into the war. Moreover, American President admitted that possibilities for diplomatic settlement of the situation around Iran are few.
Kommersant reports that the US plans to start the war before the end of the year. A Russian diplomat notes that Israel black mails American President by support of the Jewish lobby in the US. Considering coming presidential elections and features of the American election campaign, such support could be vital.
An intensive growth of the US military contingent in the Persian Gulf shows that Washington prepares for the worst scenario of the conflict settlement. Spiegel reports that Pentagon decided to increase number of military ships in the Persian Gulf – it is an American response to Iran’s threat to block the Strait of Hormuz.
These preparations mean that a military campaign against the IRI shapes up. If the negotiations within the “six” format fail and the Iranian nuclear program is not given under the IAEA control, a big fire at the Middle East would be unavoidable. Would Tehran stop and would it stop the US and Israel – are the main questions, on which the fate of the whole region depends.
Orkhan Sattarov. Exclusively to VK
