The second nuclear security summit in Seoul is a significant event in the context of the crisis over the Iranian nuclear program. Representatives of Iran and North Korea were not invited and it is a clear signal to both countries that they would be discussed without them. It is interesting that unlike the previous summit in Washington, this time President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev was invited. Of course it is due to the fact Azerbaijan became non-permanent member of the UN SC, thus, its role in the international arena grew. However, many experts think that the invitation is connected with the difficult situation around Iran, which borders Azerbaijan. Ahead of the summit the US President Barak Obama made several harsh statements on Iran. At the meeting with Premier of Turkey Erdogan Obama said: “If diplomacy and sanctions are not effective, military invasion to Iran is unavoidable.” Obama didn’t specify according to what international legal norms such invasion would be implemented. It is obvious that Russia and China would veto any resolution of the UN SC aimed at military aggression against Tehran. It means Washington is ready to repeat the sad “Iraqi scenario” of lynch law.
The main problem is that diplomacy or sanctions are ineffective. That is why experts speak about the military scenario as the most possible. Official Tehran sends no signals about softening of its position. The recent very sharp, if not provocative, speech by President Ahmadinejad at the conference in Dushanbe has become another confirmation of it. The USA delegation left the hall after it: such incidents show that the sides are far from the rational dialogue. They prefer mutual insulting than negotiations at international platforms.
In addition, during the last visit by the IAEA experts to Iran they weren’t allowed to the military base in Parchin. The IAEA believes that explosion tests could be provided in this base, and a special localization camera was built there. The IAEA experts visited the facility in Parchin in 2005, but at that period there was no such camera, Reuters reported. Meanwhile, the Iranians agreed to let the IAEA visit Parchin, but they could cover up traces by the time of the next visit. At the same time, Iran is afraid that the IAEA would give away information on the facility to the USA and Israel.
One of the major German experts on the Middle East Michael Luders gave his own appraisal to the situation around Iran in the TV-show “Tagesshau.” Luders believe that Israel would launch a strike at Iran. The export thinks that Iran couldn’t gain enriched uranium for development of nuclear armament during 6 months.
Expert explains the origin of the term, six months: first of all, Israel fears that in this period Iran would manage to transfer its nuclear program deep underground, and its nuclear facility would be invulnerable for military aviation. Secondly, Israel wants Barack Obama to make a decision on a military strike at Iran before the presidential elections in the USA, as after possible reelection of the current president it would be much more difficult to persuade him in the military operation against Iran. Luders thinks that the nuclear program of Iran is only an excuse for the US and Israel for neutralization of the geopolitical rival. Iran is the only country between Indonesia and Morocco that doesn’t provide pro-Western policy. Launching a strike at Iran, Israel would involve Washington to the conflict. And the conflict would explode the whole Middle East, the expert is sure.
The other political scientist, president of the German Foreign Policy Scoiety, Prof. Eberhard Sandschneider has no doubts that Tehran is striving at gaining nuclear armament. The expert notes this desire of Tehran is reasonable: first of all, security plays its role. Israel, India and Pakistan have nuclear armament, plus the USA and Russia are present at the region. Secondly, nuclear bomb would be a symbolic component in the long-term strategy of the Iranian authorities aimed at turning the IRI into the regional power. Sandschneider didn’t estimate possibility of launching a strike at Iran by Israel, but he said that the military operation would hardly be successful and set to fire the whole region.
The last chance for a peaceful way out is the meeting of “six” and Iran. The next meeting was planned by representatives of mediators and Iran on April 13th, but the place wasn’t chosen, Associated Press reported. Russia, Great Britain, Germany, China, the USA and France do not agree with Iran, which want to conduct the talks in Istanbul. The representatives of Tehran do not want to hold negotiations in Viena, as the IAEA headquarters is situated there.
Orkhan Sattarov. Exclusively to VK
