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By Peter Lukimson, exclusively to VK
On May 23, talks between the permanent UN Security Council members and Germany on one side and Iran on the other on Tehran nuclear program were re-launched in Baghdad. The world media expressed a certain optimism about the prospects of these talks; however, it seems that this attitude isn’t shared in Israel.
One of the main reasons for the optimism is the declaration of the IAEA head Yukiya Amano, who said that the parties are very close to a final agreement on IAEA regular inspections of Iranian nuclear facilities. However, it is important to notice that this particular agreement touches upon only a number of nuclear objects while the negotiations in Baghdad touch upon the program in general.
Despite the general optimism, the US Senate approved a new package of sanctions against Iran on the eve of the negotiation opening. The new sanctions include a ban on any cooperation with the Iranian state oil company. However, according tot eh Iranian Economics Minister, this new sanction will be hard not for Iran, but for the EU, where the oil prices might grow up to $160 per barrel.
The ‘six’ has three principle demands towards Iran:
1. Closing down the underground uranium enrichment facility in Pordo near the town of Kum;
2. Banning uranium enrichment higher that 20%;
3. Exporting the uranium that has already been more than 20%enriched from the country.
However, Israel views the Baghdad developments from a different angle. Jerusalem is very skeptical about the possibility of an agreement that would cover all three points and that would stop the Iranian nuclear program once and for all and not merely slow it down. Israeli high officials call on the international community to harden the anti-Iranian sanctions and not to trust the promises Iran gives. Israeli PM told the press that he is convinced that Iran is trying to create an A-bomb in order to fulfill its old ambition – to wipe Israel from the world’s map.
According to our sources in Washington the world’s major powers still negotiate in order to postpone Israel’s strike against Iran, however, sources in Jerusalem say that Israel won’t tolerate any restrictions to its sovereign rights. The same position was expressed by the Israeli side during the recent meeting of the Israeli PM’s councilor for national security affairs and Russian FM Sergei Lavrov. If the negotiations with Iran won’t give positive results quickly, Israel will strike, possible before this autumn and definitely before the November elections in the US.
According to the Israeli experts, Iran would try to play for time and prolong the negotiations, but Washington guaranteed that they won’t let Iran deliberately postpone the final decision. However, according to the Israeli President, as well as a number of other high-ranking officials, Iran poses a threat to the whole world, and not only to Israel, so the international community should harden the sanctions to get actual results. Israel also stressed that it won’t be satisfied by just any agreement the ‘six’ would sign with Iran.
So Washington does its best to show that the possible progress of the IAEA in case of Iran isn’t a reason for withdrawing sanctions.
For now the main problem that stops the negotiations from final success in the refusal of Iran to stop uranium enrichment. Israeli officials stress that while the negotiations are being stalled the dangerous process is ongoing. According to the Israeli side Iran does everything it can to postpone the negotiation process while it is moving forward in its program with a doubled speed. It is possible that the Iranians think that after the US elections the situation would turn to their favor and the sanctions would be loosened. And in any case Iran is known to break the international agreements it signs.
It is true that over the last couple of years Israel managed to convince the world that Iran is a serious threat to everyone, but there is still no guarantee that the world would act accordingly. That is why Israeli is ready to take up the most decisive measures on its own. Israel could never live in peace with a nuclear Iran, and all the external factors such as the US elections or the EU energetic crisis won’t be able to change Israel’s mind. Of course, the consequences of such a step might be very hard, but it is important to understand that Israel regards possible airstrike against Iranian nuclear objects as a forced measure of self defense.
