The expert community of South Caucasus wonders whether the visit of US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to the South Caucasus will speed up the negotiation process on Nagorno-Karabakh.
Bakililar.az and Trend cite the point of view of the editor-in-chief of Vestnik Kavakaza, Alexey Vlasov. He said that the declaration of the presidents made at the G8 summit in Toronto reflects 90% the position of Baku and obviously shows the success of Azerbaijani policy. On the one hand, there were many declarations on Nagorno-Karabakh signed. But at this point the mediators formed the final point of view and position on the details of settlement. In this case the document became a breaking point. Yerevan has taken the lead and the reaction of Armenian Presdient Serzh Sargsyan will depend on various inner Armenian factors and the factor of the Armenia diaspora and the position of Khankendi. It is hard to predict for sure whether Yerevan will support the breakthrough.
Now the sides should discuss ways of realizing the idea. And Clinton seems to lack this aspect in the format of her visit. Perhaps at the meeting of the two sides the real steps towards realization will be announced, Vlasov hopes.
At the same time Vlasov believes that the visit demonstrates that the aspirations of US diplomacy do not coincide with its abilities. According to Vlasov, it is important for Clinton to demonstrate that the USA still tries to play an active role in the post-Soviet space by offering the East European and South Caucasian partners a model of solving their problems with the help of Washington.
What concerns Poland, Vlasov considers, is that despite the rise to power of the new president, all Clinton’s decisions match the strategy of Warsaw’s foreign policies. Talking about Azerbaijan, Baku has a pragmatic understanding of a fair decision on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in the version Clinton offered. And there are doubts whether the decision is possible without other moderators, namely Moscow, Brussels and Ankara.
Answering the question of whether the rumors about freeing the Kelbadjari and Fisuli regions of Azerbaijan, with the US troops on the territory of Fizuli and Russian troops on Kelbedjari, are true, Vlasov said that the issue of the two regions will be solved in the near future, which is 2010-2011. He said that he was convinced by the declaration of the 3 presidents of co-chair countries of the OSCE Minsk Group in Toronto. But the peacekeepers are not likely in the zone of conflict because neither Azerbaijan nor Armenia is interested in them regardless of the country they belong to. The specific case of Nagorno-Karabakh after the ceasefire agreement was signed in 1994 is that, unlike Transdnestr or Abkhazia and South Ossetia, it did not have peacekeepers. The arrival of peacekeepers would create a situation Baku and Yerevan are unprepared for. The issue of the security of the Azerbaijani and Armenian populations will most likely be considered by the two countries. It is a hard step but if they manage to agree it will be a greater breakthrough than the return of the two regions.
Commenting on the results of Clinton’s visit to Tbilisi, Vlasov said that the relations with Georgia are the only success of the US diplomacy in the South Caucasus. The US will most likely harden its position on South Ossetia and Abkhazia, which is good news for Saakashvili. Vlasov believes that Washington will emphasize confrontation. According to their latest statements, Moscow and Tbilisi will switch to a formal dialogue and will use social organizations, cultural and religious figures to restore relations at least to the minimal level. But it should be noted that all these topics – South Caucasus, Caspian and Eastern Europe, are secondary, and that the primary issue of the US foreign policy is Iran, Vlasov concludes.
Author: Based on materials of South Caucasian media
