By VK
It is still difficult to make forecasts on development of the situation in Georgia after the parliamentary elections – the new leader of the country, Bidzina Ivanishvili, is unpredictable and a lot of information is spread in the media space. However, some Russian experts tried to predict developments in Georgia.
Alexei Mukhin, director of the Center for Political Information
I am not sure that in the post-Soviet countries democracy is an absolute good. I do not know why. Just I am not sure of it. So I think that the statement that Georgia, a democratic country, now, immediately, instantly will get a ticket to an economic, financial, political paradise - seems to me a very bold statement, for the simple reason that children always repeat the mistakes of their parents, but in a more rigid form, and Georgia has clearly used a recipe for building democracy from the U.S. and played the role of the child which has built a democracy and in fact has become an authoritarian dictatorship (we must recognize this). Speaking about the laws of this dictatorship is not accepted, because there is a democracy, but I increasingly hear from Georgian colleagues and journalists that this really is the case, it is a dictatorship in its pure form – their eyes are opening. I even think that I can use the term "virtual democracy", it is a democracy that exists only in the imagination of those who follow this idea. With regard to South Ossetia and Abkhazia, it is clear that there is a similar problem of the Kuril Islands in the relations between Russia and Japan. There is the same reflex, the same reflection and the same futility in resolving this issue. It is absolutely impossible to solve it, because none of the parties can turn back or manoeuvre in order even just to talk about it. Ivanishvili has hinted that Georgia, in principle, will be ready to enter into certain agreements with Abkhazia and South Ossetia in order to establish a dialogue, but it also seems to me extremely doubtful. I really want to be mistaken here. If that happens, it will be an absolute blessing. The opinion was sounded that Georgia is a country of traders. It sells its geopolitical position. It has always done so and will always do so in the future. There are many benefits it can get from this situation, but I will focus on the two main things. These are the participation in pipeline projects and trade in services in the event of war. In both these areas, if in terms of the provision of services in the event of war, Georgia has succeeded more or less, it has really turned into a large NATO base, without entering into it; from the point of view of pipeline projects, apparently, not everything is well formed for purely objective reasons, there is no fault on the part of Georgia - just the economic crisis, and it is not clear what will flow through the pipes soon. In principle, in economic terms Georgia is now similar to a person who goes to the bank so that his neighbors think he has money, but in fact he's drinking free coffee. It seems to me that the situation is like this. Ivanishvili, therefore, is not capable of using his billions to pull Georgia out of the economic hole. The people of Georgia hoped for this, when they voted for him, because in his small village he created socialism. It was inexpensive, and it was possible. But it was a very good technical political move that worked at the national level. The result is that this person, and it is unclear whether he will be able to implement the promises made, without the good will of the U.S., Russia or Saakashvili. Ivanishvili in a very difficult situation. To sum up: relations between Russia and Georgia are possible, but the condition for it is that Georgia will pursue an independent policy, but, unfortunately, all the indications are that in the near future it cannot conduct an independent policy, because of its economic, political and financial circumstances. I'm pessimistic in this regard.
Alexander Goltz, military analyst, political scientist
Democracy is not a ticket to a happy life, exactly. It is a chance to get this ticket, because all the other systems of government, as we know from Mr. Churchill, are even worse. Yes, no question, in this way Georgia has lots of troubles and difficulties. What stupor appeared in the government as a result of democracy in Ukraine? The parliament is almost blocked and cannot make decisions. But these are the consequent stages. Each stage has its own problems. Attempts at authoritarian modernization in some cases lead to greater modernization, but in the post-Soviet countries it is increasingly leading to more authoritarianism. There is less modernization and more and more authoritarianism. This is the first thing. Secondly, I do not know how all the scenarios of a highway, a motorway, which can turn into a runway for a "Boeing" can be seriously discussed. I do not want to go into technical details - it is impossible to build it. There are completely different requirements for a runway: a concrete foundation and a lot of things that distinguish a motorway from the runway. Moreover, let us ask ourselves the question: someone has a crazy plan for troop movements. Why do we need planes? We need them for troop transport. Why do we need troop transport? We need it in order to launch a military operation. With more or less confidence I can say that in the next 10 years, without quite extreme want and need, when there are real possible options on the Korean Peninsula, the Americans will never get involved in a ground operation. I do not just want to discuss this thesis. But let's say there is such a crazy idea. They can use the wonderful, with this runway, Turkish base of Incirlik, which provides all the same features as the hypothetical possibility of deployment in Georgia, can’t they? The notion that Georgia has become a huge base of NATO, too, is at least extremely inaccurate. In Georgia there are no major military bases of any country of the North Atlantic Alliance. By the way, the term "NATO base" is extremely imprecise: to be frank, it is most often used for propaganda purposes. There are bases of NATO member-states. And, frankly, if some of the countries of NATO and Georgia had such an idea, it would be possible, I mean, from a legal point of view, to create one base without Georgia's entry into NATO, as well as, let's say , in Kyrgyzstan, Qatar, and in many other countries where there are U.S. bases and bases of other NATO member-states with no entry. Actually, I think, we note once again, a big fault of Mr Saakashvili or his error lies in the fact that he spoke of joining NATO as a possible case. This is impossible. Georgia has absolutely no chance of dealing with any American president to join the North Atlantic Alliance. They will provide it endless advances and write endless road maps of the process. But in 1994, let me remind you, at the beginning of a conversation about the possibility of NATO expansion, first by former Eastern European countries, and then by the Balkan countries, there was a NATO document, which defined the criteria for NATO membership. One of the main and most important criteria of such entry is to settle most of the candidate country's territorial claims and disputes. It is more or less clear that the territorial disputes in Georgia will not be settled, and that means there is no chance of joinin g NATO for Georgia. Mr. Saakashvili lied to his people.
