Author: Orhan Sattarov, head of European office of VK
At the moment there is a rather unexpected turn in the situation around the Syrian conflict. It's no secret that the position of Turkey and Russia on the future of the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad diverge. But so far Moscow and Ankara have been able to smooth out the rough edges, localizing existing differences on the Syrian front. Trade turnover between the two countries has grown steadily, and in the summer of this year, Prime Minister Erdogan - even in a joking manner - asked Vladimir Putin to let Turkey enter the SCO. Between the Turkish Prime Minister and the Russian President there was trustful relationship and it seemed that even the Syrian issue - crucial for both countries - couldn't disrupt constructive bilateral relations.
However, the incident of the forced landing of Syrian aircraft from Russia on Turkish territory clearly identified the serious potential of the Syrian conflict to deteriorate relations between the two countries. Vladimir Putin cancelled his planned visit to Turkey, while the Turkish Prime Minister, speaking to reporters, actually accused Russia of trying to supply military goods to the Syrian regime. It is noteworthy that Turkey's actions were immediately and unequivocally supported by the U.S., while Europeans, for example Germany, peacefully called on all parties "not to add fuel to the fire" of the confrontation. Public support for Turkey by the U. S. on the issue of the detention of the commercial aircraft indirectly indicates on whose tip Ankara acted.
The question now is not even whether in fact there was military cargo on board a commercial aircraft. We can assume that the Turkish Prime Minister was not lying about the confiscated cargo, and Russia actually tried to help the Assad regime supplying equipment for military use. But in this case, it was hardly the first and only party of military equipment on a flight from Russia to Syria. If Russia is actively arming the Syrian regime (while Turkey and the Arab monarchies are arming the rebels), it could not stay out of sight of Western, particularly American, intelligence services. This, however, is confirmed by the incident of landing an aircraft - in fact, the Turkish officers acted on a tip from the intelligence of their allies. There is another version: there was no cargo, but the detention of the A320 may be only part of the information war against Syria and Russia.
In any event, the fact that Turkey has decided to take such a confrontational step in relations with Russia is quite worrying. In our opinion, it is due to several factors. The fact is that, in recent years, Turkey is increasingly being drawn into the conflict in Syria, and its parliament has granted permission to carry out cross-border military operations in Syria and Iraq. This occurs against a background of military setbacks on the part of the Syrian rebels and mercenaries - as some Western analysts think, possible cross-border operation of Turkey in Syria should provide armed support to the rebels fighting against the Assad regime, while the Syrian government forces are applying pressure on them on the Turkish border.
During the one and a half years of actual civil war in Syria, the opposition movement not only failed to break the resistance of the government forces, but also lost the support of much of the Syrian population. Broad involvement in opposition ranks of openly extremist and terrorist elements, distinguished by bloody terrorist attacks in major cities, can hardly add to the sympathy of Syrian civilians. And if at the beginning of the civil war in Syria, fleeing officers and generals of the Syrian army to the camp of the opposition were numerous, now such incidents have begun to occur much less frequently. As time passes, the opposition movement has been increasingly discredited in the eyes of the world community.
Turkey and its Western allies realize that their strategy for the violent overthrow of the Syrian regime is now an unambiguous failure - not least thanks to the support for Syria by Iran and Russia, and the large number of supporters of the incumbent president in the country. On the other hand, the coalition of countries led by the U.S. is not going to abandon its target - because it will be another serious blow to the image of the U.S. as a superpower. In addition, a change of regime in Syria for a loyal one is a key element of the anti-Iranian policy of the West. It is therefore likely that the West at the moment is consciously initiating a new round of confrontation by means of Turkey, which is already more openly drawing Russia into the Syrian conflict, turning it into a "cold war" scenario, because the "war for democracy" under the banner of the fundamentalists is rapidly losing support - not least in Western societies themselves.
What is surprising, however, is the persistence with which Turkey continues to risk relations with its important political and economic regional partners, so to speak, putting "all its eggs in the American basket" in its foreign policy. Due to this even such bitter enemies of Turkey as Israel and Iran, are actually unwittingly working together to confront Turkish policies in Syria. Relations with Syria have reached the level of mutual attacks on the border, relations with Tehran have significantly worsened, while overtures to the Iraqi Kurds could bring Ankara only tactical advantage, but does not neutralize the long-term threat of an independent Kurdish state - in the best case, near Turkey's borders. Moreover, as a result, Ankara has quarrelled with the Baghdad authorities. And now, having bet on friendly relations with Moscow, the Turkish government runs the risk of once again reducing its opportunities for political manoeuvring in the region. The question as to whether the policy of the Turkish leadership is justified and clear-sighted remains open.
