Tsarukyan’s silence

The main intrigue in the political life of Armenia remains the question of the nomination of the leader of the "Prosperous Armenia" Party (PAP), Gagik Tsarukyan, as a candidate for president. About three weeks ago, Tsarukyan said: "These important decisions are not made at the last minute and without any preparation. I've already made a decision. Another issue is that the electoral law allows me not to announce my decision. I will use this right."

Sources close to the PAP claim that the long-awaited declaration will be made after the congress of the ruling Republican Party of Armenia (RPA), on December 15. The position of Tsarukyan, who clearly does not want to make specific statements, caused nervousness in the domestic political field. Government experts and representatives of the Republican Party are vying to claim the support of the PAP for incumbent President Serzh Sargsyan in the upcoming February 2013 presidential election, an unequivocal victory for Sargsyan and even the inexpediency of Tsarukyan’s participation in the elections. The chairman of the Christian Democratic Union, an MP from the Republican Party Khosrov Harutyunyan, for example, advised the leader of the PAP to do party building and not to be a candidate for president.

The director of the Armenian branch of the CIS Institute, Alexander Markarov, is in no doubt that the current president will win in the upcoming election: "The results of the parliamentary elections provide a basis for the assumption of the victory of Serzh Sargsyan." The former Foreign Minister of Nagorno-Karabakh, Arman Melikyan, said "the power system has two distinct poles, and one of them is an artificial one. So no matter what the PAP is doing – it will contribute to the continued existence of the system of government, and therefore the PAP itself. The latter in any case will support the incumbent president, no matter whether it will promote its candidate or not.”

The media have also contributed to the overall atmosphere of nervousness. The site "168.am" wrote that the silence of Tsarukyan made Sargsyan nervous, and he gave the PAP leader two days to make a statement. A number of other state-controlled media are actually blackmailing Tsarukyan and hint that some facts from his distant youth will be published, and this may adversely affect his image. Meanwhile, sources close to the PAP spread information that, if such blackmail continues, the PAP will make counter publications, the impact of which will be much greater. These publications will not deal with the personal life of Sargsyan but with some fragments of his work in 1990-1994. The electronic publication "Zham.am", controlled by the PAP, indicated that some of the publications "may shock Armenian society if the public know how and with whom Sargsyan collaborated during this period."

The overall tone of many of the statements suggests that the upcoming competition will be very tough and will take place between Gagik Tsarukyan and Serzh Sargsyan. "The election campaign is under way, though it has not officially begun. Today two issues are the most interesting: whether Tsarukyan will run, and in the case of his participation, how actively he would conduct his campaign in order to really compete with Serzh Sargsyan,” the director of the “Caucasus" Institute Alexander Iskandaryan said.

Some of Tsarukyan's weird behavior can be explained by natural processes in the political field. There is a clearly-visible convergence of views on the most important issues between the radical opposition – the Armenian National Congress (ANC) - and the PAP. Both these forces have voted against the draft law on the State Budget for 2013. The PAP has supported a number of initiatives by the ANC, including the project of forming a new parliamentary commission studying the events of March 1, the initiative to apply to the Constitutional Court about the boycott by the parliamentary majority of the extraordinary session of the National Assembly on November 21, initiated by the ANC. At that meeting, in order to improve electoral processes the ANC planned to present a number of important amendments to the Electoral Code, the Criminal Code and the law "On the State Register."

Now there are consultations between the ANC, the PAP, the ARFD and other opposition parties, like"Heritage" and the "Free Democrats". The head of the central office of the ANC, Levon Zurabyan, said that the second stage of political consultations is beginning, during which issues related to the format of the party in the elections will be discussed, including the specific nominations for president. The ANC candidate will be Armenia's first president, Levon Ter-Petrosyan. Two years ago, during one of the rallies, he said that he would run as a candidate for the presidential election if the second president, Robert Kocharyan, also runs. However, there are no signs yet that he will participate in the election, so it is possible that Ter-Petrosyan also will not do so.

With this in mind, the ANC can support another candidate. Alexander Iskandaryan believes that the ANC will support the candidature of Tsarukyan. With the participation of the ANC in the elections, this power can only get a small percentage of votes. "In the parliamentary elections the ANC won 7%, and in the presidential elections this 7% definitely will not turn into 50%," the analyst said.

Naturally, the ANC will support the PAP leader on certain political conditions that may be related to ensuring that Tsarukyan is ready to make fundamental changes in the extremely difficult political and socio-economic situation in the country. Perhaps the ANC and its leader will help Tsarukyan, who has more support in a number of regions, to conquer the capital. Most likely, the ANC will influence the voters in Yerevan who do not consider themselves supporters of Tsarukyan.