Orkhan Sattarov, the head of the European bureau of Vestnik Kavkaza
The internal conflict in Syria, which has continued for almost two years and divides the country into to hostile camps of those who "for" and "against" Bashar Assad, steps into a final stage. At least, many factors and surprising confessions by top Syrian and Russian politicians mark this. The vice president of Syria Faruk Sharaa admitted in an interview to the Lebanese newspaper Al Ahbar that neither governmental troops not the armed opposition could win the military conflict which is lasting for 21 months in Syria, "We do not protect anyone personally or the regime, we are fighting for existence of Syria," the vice president said, RIA Novosti reported. Despite his belonging to the Sunni religion, Sharaa is a supporter of Assad's regime. Sharaa who had been the foreign minister of Syria for 22 years stated that the regime of Assad was in a disastrous situation. The German periodical Die Welt reports that since March 2011 Sharaa stopped fulfilling his duties, protesting against violence toward the civil population. As hands of the vice president haven't been befouled with blood of his citizens, the Turkish government and a part of the Syrian opposition see Faruk Sharaa as a man who is able to head the transactional government in Syria after resignation of Bashar Assad.
A few days before the deputy foreign minister of Russia Mikhail Bogdanov made an indicant statement which was called by The Guardian "a grim sign for Bashar Assad." "We have to face the facts. The tendency is that the regime and the government of Syria are losing more and more control and territories. Unfortunately, the victory of the Syrian opposition cannot be excluded," Bogdanov said, RIA Novosti reported. The diplomat noted that training of militants, armament supplies from abroad, and the recent recognition of the National Coalition as legitimate power improve their confidence in the victory. "They say their victory is near - "soon we will take over Aleppo and Damascus" - and that they control 60% of the territory," he added. Pessimism by the top Russian diplomat is considered by many observers at least as realization that the regime will collapse soon, if not readiness to give official Damascus away. It is true that recent weeks were marked by military successes of rebels, while fights shifted from Damascus' suburbs to the capital itself. After stubborn battles the Free Syrian Army managed to capture the camp of refugees from Palestine in the south of Damascus, Reuters reported at Monday night. A week before these events militants from Jabat Al Nusra captured the base of Sheikh Suleiman in the north of the country. Thus, they blocked the strategically important highway between Damascus and Jordan.
At the same time the Syrian opposition receives serious institutional support from foreign countries. At the Morocco conference of "Syria's friends," i.e. countries which stand for the Western position, the National Coalition of the opposition and revolutionary forces in Syria was recognized as a legal representative of interests of the Syrian people. In reality it means increase of financial and military support to "legitimate" representatives of Syria by the Western countries, Turkey, and the Arab monarchies. Moreover, the US is alright with the fact that the National Coalition includes the group of Jabat Al Nusra which was called by the Americans terrorist on December 10. Washington cannot reject services by Jabat Al Nusra which is an Iraqi subdivision of Al Qaeda. According to some data, the group includes more than 10 thousand elite soldiers who are thought to be the main hitting power of the Syrian opposition and the main headache of Assad's regime. On the other hand, militants from Jabat Al Nusra are very popular among the Syrian opposition activists; and their elimination from the National Coalition would destroy a fragile construction made from different political forces which were gathered by "Syria's friends" in Morocco.
The other evidence that the conflict is reaching a climax is serious worsening of relations between Iran which supports Assad and Turkey which stands for the rebel movement. President of Iran Mahmud Ahmadinejad canceled his visit to Turkey on Monday after the Iranian Headquarters had stated that location of the surface-to-air missile system Patriot at the border between Turkey and Syria could lead to the world war, the Turkish newspaper Today's Zaman reported. 1news.az cited RIA Novosti that Ahmadinejad's visit to the Turkish province Konya was initiated by the prime minister of Turkey Recep Erdogan for participation in the 739th death anniversary of the Perisan Sufi poet Jalaladdin Rumi. Turkish diplomatic sources said that Ahmadinejad canceled the visit as if because of unexpected changes in his schedule.
In addition, the Western media space is actively discussing a variant of using chemical armament in Damascus by the regime against its citizens. President of the USA Barack Obama clearly stated that it would be "a red live" for the Syrian regime, after which the USA would interfere with the conflict. Official Damascus fears a possibility of using chemical armament by the opposition on the tip from the West. The extremist opposition groups can use chemical armament against people and accuse the government of that.
Therefore, the current situation over Syria looks frustrating for Bashar Assad. In the context of the heaviest economic crisis and humanitarian disaster which were caused by the civil war, President Assad cannot provide security in the country as he has lost control over the main part of it. Even in case of a complete restoration of the military control over the country, which is least probable, the current regime will have no financial resources for reviving of economy. It is no surprise than even Russia begins to doubt in vitality of the government of Bashar Assad.
