Author: Alexei Vlasov, Director General of Center for Political Studies "North-South"
As in the last two weeks, Georgia is the most dynamic among the countries of South Caucasus, where the resistance between the new and the old authorities acquires more and more acute form. Still, every word and action of the current Georgian president meets a harsh reaction of the prime-minister and his circles. This is reciprocal - Mikhail Saakashvili also strives to discredit the leader of the "Georgian Dream".
The situation is complicated by the fact that the former opposition, who are now the ruling party of Georgia, do not want to end the legal persecution of the bureaucrats that were close to the Georgian president. Now it is the turn of Tbilisi mayor Gigi Ugulava, one of the most successful politicians from the "nest of Saakashvili". Ugulava was questioned right on his working place after he said that he has not time to come to the Persecutor office.
Like in the famous Russian commercial "Then we are coming to you", the law-enforcement agencies did not want to destruct Ugulava form his work. Some of the necessary information the investigators received in the building of the Tbilisi municipality. This action attracted a lot of journalists' attention not only in Georgia, but also in Russia and
in the West. Meanwhile, the parliamentary majority prepares a law about the limitation of the presidential authority. Georgian experts do not exclude the possibility that Mikhail Saakashvili may initiated the dissolution of the parliament before the beginning of April. The preventive attack should deprive the Georgian president of this possibility.
At the same time, the circles that support the current president, already proposed their way of compromise - they would agree for the limitation of the presidential authority in exchange for some special document that would recognize the continuation of the current foreign policy of the Georgian state.
This step looks like a PR move by UNM but it seems that their opponents from Georgian Dream will not be satisfied by this exchange. It can be reminded that according to the Georgian constitution, the president can dissolve the parliament no later than 6 months before the presidential election and not earlier and 6 months after the parliamentary. It means that April 2013 is a point of no return.
The passions are so hot that Mikhail Saakashvili that was planning to address the people on February 8, had to reject the idea of not only speaking in the parliament but even speaking in the National Library of Tbilisi.
The decision about it was taken after the crowd of the protestors attacked Gigi Ugulava and other members of the United National Movement.
Yet, the experts that predicted that the response of Georgian President would be tough were right. Saakashvili was trying to speak from the building of the presidential administration in his usual attacking manner. "They tell me to shut up and after getting the necessary voices castrate the parliament", said the Georgian President referring to the desire of his opponents to get the two thirds of the parliamentary voices. "We remember very well how the first Georgian president was first forced into his residence and then in a bunker, but I would not be brought in a bunker because this palace is glass and transparent which is the principle of my life", concluded Saakashvili.
Then the Georgian president gave a brief evaluation of the country's development in the last 9 years, called for the integration with the EU and the NATO and warned against the unequal relations with Russia.
As for the Russian-Georgian relations, apart from the visit of Russian political scientists and journalists in Georgia, all the question of the dialogue turn around two old themes: the return of Georgian wine on the Russian market and the restoration of the railway connection.
Georgian prime minister again talked about the transport communication through Abkhazia, stressing that it deserves special attention. In response Saakashvili used his normal arguments that the restoration of the Abkhazian part will legalize the occupation and the bridgehead for Russian to occupy all the Caucasus.
In general, it can be concluded that the internal struggle in Georgia will only become fiercer.
Meanwhile, the presidential race is coming to the finish stage in the neighboring Armenia. The main intrigue after the murder attempt against one of the presidential candidates was whether the elections will be postponed. There is no clear answer to this question because of the health of Mr. Hayrikyan.
Russian Center for Public Opinion Research conducted a survey in Armenia that suggests that Serzh Sargsyan will win the elections. 61% are sure of this, 57% of the respondents supposed that the situation in the country would get worse, two thirds are unhappy with the current situation in the country. At the same time 56% evaluate the work of Sargsyan positively. This is a curious contradiction. According to the respondents, unemployment is the main problem in Armenia.
One of the presidential candidates, Aram Harutyunyan, quitted the race and removed his candidacy. He says that his aim is make other candidates quit the elections and turn the election in the non-alternative so that they will be illegitimate from the point of view of the Constitution. In the situation when Armenian society has no interest to this candidate, this move of his did not provoke much resonance.
The discussion about the Eurasian integration is much more tense in Armenian society. Thus, when speaking in front of his electorate, Serzh Sargsyan said that the European and Eurasian projects should not be juxtaposed. "It is pointless to provoke confrontation, to juxtapose one and another", he said. Sargsyan said that the claim that Armenia has to decide now about its integration processes is laughable. In his words, Armenia will always try to use the possibilities of these or those unions, judging on whether they ensure the security of Armenia and allow to develop the economy. "If yes then yes, if no then no", he noted.
Another big claim was made by the Armenian prime minister Tiran Sarkisyan in his interview to "Moskovskie Novosti". He reminded that after the meeting on August 8 2012 Russian and Armenian presidents decided to create a committee that should propose a format of Armenian participation in the Customs Union: "It is not only about the absence of the common borders. Armenian specificity lies in the fact that the structure of its economy is very different from the economy of the Customs Union countries, which have big reserves of energy resources and which protect local producers with high customs fees. In general the fees in Customs Union are twice higher than those in Armenia". Sarkisyan noted that Armenia is interested in the integration processes in the CIS space and is ready to stimulate them.
This claims sound ambiguous. It is plausible that after the elections the official Yerevan will support the "balancedoption" - free trade zone with the CIS and free trade zone with the EU. The question is whether Russia is happy with this multi-vectorial rule?
In Azerbaijani information field it was the Russian ambassador that became the main newsmaker. At the meeting of the Caspian-European Integration Business Club Vladimir Dorokhin said that the Agreement about the supplies of Azerbaijani gas to Russia for 2013 will be signed already in February. "According to the prognosis for 2012, the estimated export of Azerbaijani gas will was 3 billion cubic meters, while the real volumes were 2 billion. In February we will sign the agreement for this year one the condition that would satisfy both sides", Dorokhin noted.
Afterwards Russian ambassador said that Russian will give Gabala radar station to Azerbaijan in the same condition as it received it. He announced it to the journalists after the meeting of the special committee in Baku about the closing of the radar station.
Dorokhin also stressed that the equipment of the radar station that was brought in after the rental contract belongs to Russia. Therefore Russian has the full right to take it away. At the moment it is decided what can be taken in the short time. Afterwards the documents about the move of the object under the jurisdiction of Azerbaijan will be signed.
It seems that the story of Gabala comes to a full stop but judging from the optimism of Dorokhin the format of Russian-Azerbaijani dialogue should not divert from the positive trajectory.
