Panarin: Is Khloponin’s stake on the young reasonable? Was the recent forum of Caucasus youth just an event, or part of the strategy?
Vlasov: Our portal was one the informational sponsors of the project.
Panarin: That was for the first time, I think?
Vlasov: It is important to understand the specifics of the region, not to copy the "Seliger"
Panarin: So is it "Seliger-2" or not?
Vlasov: I think the target was set taking into consideration local aspects. They are very important. That is why I think one can't use the same political methods. Specialists that know all the nuances and shades are required. We want to wish them good luck. We - journalists and information workers - must, of course, help the representative.
Panarin: Was it his personal idea?
Vlasov: I think that the idea came from his staff and was approved in the Kremlin. If we monitor the announcements of Dmitry Medvedev and Vladimir Putin you will see two general aspects. The first is to ensure the safety of citizens, the second is to solve the problem of corruption and the problem of patronage. If the young do not feel that they have equal chances and see that all the places are taken by the sons of the elite, you won't have a modern project.
Panarin: And you will have conflict.
Vlasov: And you will have a constant conflict of interests.
Panarin: But, on the whole, I think it is a positive initiative. It would be good if it took place in the future.
Vlasov: I think it must be supported. Our portal is an initiator of one of the programs. It is not yet approved, but I hope it will be found interesting. It is an idea of creating preparation and improvement centres for young specialists - political scientists, journalists, sociologists.
Panarin: And where will these centres be situated?
Vlasov: There are Universities that are ready to host them.
Panarin: Not only in the North Caucasus?
Vlasov: No. We are speaking about programs designed for the North Caucasus.
Panarin: But in Moscow?
Vlasov: But in Moscow.
Panarin: I see.
Vlasov: Prospectively we are ready to work in Pyatigorsk and other cities that are university centres in the Caucasus. We have agreement from the head of the Russian State University of the Humanities, Efim Iosifovitch Pivovar, to take part in the experiment. And the Dean of the history department of Moscow State University, Sergey Pavlovich Karpov, is also ready. It means that we have a project with an academic and an informational structure. I find this to be very important.
Panarin: And what is the international aspect of the politics of the Caucasus ? The two main players, the USA and the European Union, have they accepted two independent states and what is their position on them?
Vlasov: I have my own position about the attitude of the USA, but I am not sure that it is correct. I think that Obama is creating tensions for any future Republican administration.
Panarin: So you think that he is not going to stay?
Vlasov: And in considering the chances of the Democrats returning after another 4 years, he is creating problems for the next administration. It is the problem of Iran. It is the row between Turkey and Israel.
Panarin: It is not even a row, it is a colossal incident.
Vlasov: A colossal incident. And the main thing is that all I see in the South Caucasus, except for Clinton’s visit...
Panarin: And how do you find her visit? I think it was a global event.
Vlasov: Yes. She should have shown the disturbed elites of the Caucasus, I mean above all Georgia, and less so Yerevan and Baku, that the USA has not left the Caucasus forever. They left, but they can return any minute. And even the stern announcements about "occupied" territories, that were heard from the State Department the day before Clinton’s visit, show us that Saakashvili got his "Georgia is a stronghold of democracy in the Caucasus". It is good for Saakashvili, but Baku has been in doubt for a long time about the unstable policy of the USA in the region. And the problem not only covers Nagorno-Karabakh, but a wide range of questions. For example Iran. "What do you want, master?" - is the question posed by those who are involved in the risky strategies of the American administration.
Panarin: Yes, he will be the first victim.
Vlasov: I am not sure whether Hillary would answer the question clearly if it were put in a more diplomatic form.
Panarin: And what is the general conclusion to be drawn from her visit?
Vlasov: In Georgia, the USA maintains its status quo. And as for the others: developing relations with Yerevan, efforts to draw Russia out of the Armenian sector of our diplomacy and restoring relations with Azerbaijan. I do not think it was a success.
Panarin: And what about the European Union?
Vlasov: The EU plays a more careful game, which must be understood.
Panarin: As I remember, we recently had a summit in Rostov and our relations are quite good right now.
Vlasov: It seems to me that several EU bureaucrats want to offer the Caucasus to deal with Europe, but not instead of Russia, but together with it. If you look carefully at the report of the Institute of Contemporary Development, you can find similar ideas. And these ideas are worth at least discussing.
Panarin: Can Berlusconi be the new leader of the EU and of Russian politics in the Caucasus?
Vlasov: That is a difficult question.
Panarin: I will draw your attention to the fact that when the situation was hard for us, due to the situation in the Caucasus, Berlusconi was the only European leader who came out for Russia. Now he again demonstrates it. Do you think it is a strategy, or a situational tactic?
Vlasov: I think that the role of the main newsmaker of Europe is divided between Berlusconi, Merkel and Sarkozy. Within this distribution he, no doubt, is more tolerant and strategically emotional towards Russia.
Panarin: Remember him wearing a jacket with "Russia" on it?
Vlasov: I want to note that Merkel is a more dynamic worker in the post-Soviet territories. I think that here surprises can happen. It is all related to the fact that the economy of the EU is still in crisis and cannot take on new members. This is quite clear now. And here the role of Russia as a strategic partner is strong. So, despite the fact that Merkel thinks of Putin as a friend of Schroeder, which is now unimportant, Germany needs Russia as a strategic partner.
Panarin: Can we consider the positions of the EU and Russia to be similar?
Vlasov: On 80 % of issues, in my opinion.
Panarin: Can we form a line of stabilization together?
Vlasov: I think so.
Panarin: And when will other countries recognize the two new states? In a year, two, three? What are the prospects?
Vlasov: In my opinion this problem will be solved on the level of the CIS with our partners. This is a topic for another discussion. A year or two.
Panarin: It means that by 2012, not only fraternal countries in Latin America?...
Vlasov: I think that our allies will join the process.
Panarin: Finishing our dialogue, could you please answer my question, as to whether the post-Soviet territories have prospects? The Customs Union has been created. The president of Syria said they want to join. So do we have prospects?
Vlasov: I think that the Customs Union is a very powerful integration project that is going to play not only an economic, but a political role. But to make post-Soviet territory once again united and strong we, first of all Russia, as the main integrator in the region, must solve a simple problem of creating a distinct, bright, attractive image of Russia as a centre of Eurasian integration. If we manage to do this by improving Russia, we will become even more attractive for our partners and success is ours.
Panarin: And when will we be able to do it, in your opinion?
Vlasov: It is happening in front of our eyes. Who believed two years ago, that the "Skolkovo" project would start? Nevertheless, crucial steps are being made in this direction. The next two years will be decisive. If it goes further than just talk, then the USA, the EU and China won't have a chance of taking our place in Central Asia. If we can show that we are partners, and attractive partners, without the experience of living together, like it was in the Soviet Union, victory will be ours.
Panarin: So let us now, on this positive phrase "victory will be ours", end our dialogue. Today, my guest was Aleksey Victorovich Vlasov. We discussed the problems of the post-Soviet territories. Another program of "World Politics" is coming to an end, and the main conclusion is that if Russia wants to integrate Euroasia it must create a positive image. The next two years are crucial. And then victory will be ours. Farewell dear audience.
