By Mikhail Belyayev exclusively for Vestnik Kavkaza
An Armenian Mi-24 combat helicopter was shot down by the Karabakh anti-air forces of Azerbaijan on November 12. Three people manning the aircraft died. OSCE Secretary General Lamberto Zannier warned in a special message that the scale of the crisis could escalate. The Armenian Defense Ministry has warned about the repercussions Azerbaijan will suffer, the Azerbaijani defense minister gave the Azerbaijani soldier who shot the helicopter down a reward.
Since the ceasefire agreement signed in 1994 until November 12, 2014, there were no aircraft shot down on either of the sides of the conflict. So 2014 did not only see record losses, it is also highlighted by the destruction of costly equipment.
Moreover, the machine was shot down during drills of the Armenian Armed Forces on the occupied territories of Azerbaijan. By destroying a hostile helicopter, Azerbaijan dealt the image of the Armenian military and political authorities a painful blow, especially considering that the drills in Nagorno-Karabakh and adjacent territories are used for propaganda. The “Karabakh argument” is the main, maybe even the only, ace in the deck of the existing government in the internal political struggle, needed to compensate the old socio-political crisis in the country by controlling Nagorno-Karabakh and the seven surrounding districts.
Armenia will probably try to even the score and calm the public down. So, there are high chances of attacks on Azerbaijani military outposts in the next days and weeks.
Maneuvers of Armenian combat aviation on occupied Azerbaijani districts, that do not even belong to the territory of the former NKAO, over the positions of the Azerbaijani army in the Agdam District, is a very risky idea. Some media information about a helicopter being shot down in Nagorno-Karabakh is absolutely accurate. The Agdam District, famous for its cognac industry established in Soviet times, has never been part of Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan has already said many times that Agdam is not Armenian land. And even if the Armenian president does not doubt Azerbaijan’s ownership of Agdam, one may wonder why Armenian forces hold drills there.
The shot down helicopter crashed 500m from the frontline. According to the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry, it was planning to attack Azerbaijani positions, thus, provoking the air defenses. A second helicopter of the Armenian Armed Forces left the area. The Armenian Defense Ministry called such an interpretation absurd. The Azerbaijani Defense Ministry published photos taken on the controlled territories depicting how close the Armenian helicopters approached Azerbaijani positions.
So what do we have? We can say for sure that a phase of some serenity, preceded by violent fighting in August 2014, has come to an end. Obviously, the diplomatic initiative of Vladimir Putin, who invited Ilham Aliyev and Serzh Sargsyan on August 10 for urgent trilateral talks in Sochi, only had a short-term effect. Any period of peace in the conflict zone, achieved with political assistance from Russia in the region, can only help before the first provocation. On November 12, the dangerous flights by Armenian aviation over Azerbaijani positions were such a provocation. Clearly, maintenance of status quo, the unacceptability of which is emphasized by the OSCE Minsk Group, may detonate the “Karabakh bomb.” As long as there is no recipe for a systemic and long-term settlement of the problem, the sides of the conflict should be ready again for inevitable losses.
Dangerous flights over Azerbaijani positionsBy Mikhail Belyayev exclusively for Vestnik KavkazaAn Armenian Mi-24 combat helicopter was shot down by the Karabakh anti-air forces of Azerbaijan on November 12. Three people manning the aircraft died. OSCE Secretary General Lamberto Zannier warned in a special message that the scale of the crisis could escalate. The Armenian Defense Ministry has warned about the repercussions Azerbaijan will suffer, the Azerbaijani defense minister gave the Azerbaijani soldier who shot the helicopter down a reward.Since the ceasefire agreement signed in 1994 until November 12, 2014, there were no aircraft shot down on either of the sides of the conflict. So 2014 did not only see record losses, it is also highlighted by the destruction of costly equipment.Moreover, the machine was shot down during drills of the Armenian Armed Forces on the occupied territories of Azerbaijan. By destroying a hostile helicopter, Azerbaijan dealt the image of the Armenian military and political authorities a painful blow, especially considering that the drills in Nagorno-Karabakh and adjacent territories are used for propaganda. The “Karabakh argument” is the main, maybe even the only, ace in the deck of the existing government in the internal political struggle, needed to compensate the old socio-political crisis in the country by controlling Nagorno-Karabakh and the seven surrounding districts.Armenia will probably try to even the score and calm the public down. So, there are high chances of attacks on Azerbaijani military outposts in the next days and weeks.Maneuvers of Armenian combat aviation on occupied Azerbaijani districts, that do not even belong to the territory of the former NKAO, over the positions of the Azerbaijani army in the Agdam District, is a very risky idea. Some media information about a helicopter being shot down in Nagorno-Karabakh is absolutely accurate. The Agdam District, famous for its cognac industry established in Soviet times, has never been part of Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan has already said many times that Agdam is not Armenian land. And even if the Armenian president does not doubt Azerbaijan’s ownership of Agdam, one may wonder why Armenian forces hold drills there.The shot down helicopter crashed 500m from the frontline. According to the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry, it was planning to attack Azerbaijani positions, thus, provoking the air defenses. A second helicopter of the Armenian Armed Forces left the area. The Armenian Defense Ministry called such an interpretation absurd. The Azerbaijani Defense Ministry published photos taken on the controlled territories depicting how close the Armenian helicopters approached Azerbaijani positions.So what do we have? We can say for sure that a phase of some serenity, preceded by violent fighting in August 2014, has come to an end. Obviously, the diplomatic initiative of Vladimir Putin, who invited Ilham Aliyev and Serzh Sargsyan on August 10 for urgent trilateral talks in Sochi, only had a short-term effect. Any period of peace in the conflict zone, achieved with political assistance from Russia in the region, can only help before the first provocation. On November 12, the dangerous flights by Armenian aviation over Azerbaijani positions were such a provocation. Clearly, maintenance of status quo, the unacceptability of which is emphasized by the OSCE Minsk Group, may detonate the “Karabakh bomb.” As long as there is no recipe for a systemic and long-term settlement of the problem, the sides of the conflict should be ready again for inevitable los
