By Vestnik Kavkaza
Another round of negotiations to resolve the conflict in Ukraine in the 'Normandy Quartet' format could become one of the turning points in the history of modern Europe. At stake is the resolution of the most serious crisis of the European security system since the end of World War II. The intertwining of conflicting geopolitical interests of world and regional powers make peace in the Ukraine difficult to achieve. Because Ukraine is a place where the forces of government troops and militias have clashed in a tough battle to ensure that, during the period of the negotiations in Minsk, they will secure a stronger position.
One of the key players in this situation is Germany under the leadership of Chancellor Angela Merkel - perhaps the most experienced and pragmatic politician in Europe's higher echelons. It is no coincidence that her reputation is increasingly leaning in the context of the prolonged conflict Ukrainian. Moreover, the delight of observers at the actions of the Chancellor in Ukraine is gradually decreasing. Thus, the publication 'Der Spiegel' writes that, despite the great efforts of Angela Merkel, she cannot solve the basic problems of the European continent. "Some give a wrong assessment, and her influence is also limited. Her policy of small steps and pragmatism seems perfectly sound. And if things go wrong, other people are to blame. At least that’s how many journalists see her, and the majority of Germans believe it. Criticism of Merkel is standing within the normal range, because no one can argue that, without the efforts of Merkel, the situation would have been much worse. Because she won a confident victory in the last elections," the newspaper notes. Next, 'Spiegel' says: "A difficult political winter, in which the Ukrainian crisis and Greece took center stage, puts Merkels’ foreign policy in a pretty bad light. Problems remain, and in the case of Ukraine, the situation is only getting worse. The fact that Merkel intervenes in the conflict and negotiates at a crucial point for a long time, raises the question: what proportion of responsibility does the Chancellor takes for such a distressing situation? "
In fact, criticism of Merkel is getting louder and louder. Even during the Munich Security Forum, major differences between Berlin and Washington over tactics in the Ukraine became obvious, the US and British delegations expressed open dissatisfaction with Merkel's reluctance to supply weapons to Ukraine. The Americans are standing for supplying lethal weapons to the Ukrainian army, while the Germans, on the other hand, believe that such a measure will not succeed. The Republican Party, which is dominant in both chambers of the US Congress today, believes in the necessity of delivering arms to Ukraine, because it will drastically "raise the price of Russian military support for the separatists." The Kiev authorities have the same opinion; they did not hide their extreme interest in receiving Western weapons. Finally, even President Barack Obama, who publicly distanced himself from the possibility of supplying weapons to Ukraine, has changed his position and is now considering every option.
Chancellor Merkel, despite all the pressure that comes from the US and British partners, does not hide her skepticism about the prospects of the Ukrainian army having military successes in the fight against pro-Russian forces in the south-east of Ukraine, regardless of what kind of weapons and how much will be delivered. In Munich, Merkel openly admitted that she does not consider possible military victory over "the Russian military machine" at all, and asked everyone to measure this situation calmly. She did not change her position after a recent visit to Washington.
It is noteworthy that at the same time in the German media information was leaked from the secret service of the German Armed Forces about the military forces of Ukraine. So, according to the German secret service, the Ukrainian side has 30,000 soldiers involved in military operations, only 15,000 of whom are combat units, because the other half are responsible for logistics. According to the German intelligence secret service, the separatists are significantly more motivated than the Ukrainian soldiers, and many Ukrainian conscripts are trying to evade military service and travel to Russia. As the publisher Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung writes, defeat in Debaltseve, where there are about 6,000 Ukrainian troops, will mean the loss of 40% of Kiev’s combat units. It is obvious that, depending on the failure or success of negotiations in Minsk, the role that Berlin will play in future negotiations will change. Kiev does not hide the fact that, in case of failure of the negotiations in the format of the "Normandy Quartet", hostilities could grow to uncontrollable proportions, and President Poroshenko is preparing to introduce martial law in that case. As a result, Merkel's position as a mediator could seriously falter.
