Two ways for the Caspian five and regional development
(For the first part of the article, see http://vestnikkavkaza.net/analysis/economy/7792.html)
In the sphere of land transport
Concerned regions develop railway links between the Caspian region countries. For example, the Russian Railways hold a project of direct railway links between Russia and Iran in the Caspian region within forming of common railway infrastructure of the international transport corridor "North-South".
The length of the railway from St. Petersburg to the Iranian port Bender-Abbas accounts up to 4500 km. Moreover, significant is a common project of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Iran of building the railway Uzen-Kyzylkaya-Bereket-Etreck-Gorgan, the length is 686 km. On 22nd of July Astans held the first meeting of the Three-sided coordination committee, where its participants presented their national reports and discussed various questions on the project.
In the sphere of ecology and biologic resources protection
International cooperation in this sphere is based on the Framework convention on the protection of the marine environment of the Caspian Sea acting since the 12 of August 2008. On the 26-27 of January Moscow carried out consultations between Russian and Iranian experts in the sphere of the protection of the marine environment of the Caspian Sea. Within the consultations the participants developed projects of such documents as the protocol on the influence on environment in the cross-border context and the protocol on the regional preparedness, reacting and cooperation in case of oil pollution. These documents were sent for agreement to appropriate authorities of each country of the Caspian region. They are expected to be adopted in this November.
On the 14-16 of June Tehran held the 31st session of the Committee on the water biologic resources of the Caspian Sea. Its participants discussed common acceptable catches of sturgeons and its distribution between the countries. They also heard national reports for 2009 on fishery observation on the Caspian Sea, artificial reproduction of biologic resources and anti-poaching actions.
As a result of the session the Committee on the water biologic resources of the Caspian Sea decided to cut shares of catches by 7% for each country of the region. This decision is important not only for environment protection, but also for gradual forming of stable tools of international cooperation.
Besides, the Caspian region countries intend to sign agreements regulating environment protection on the Caspian Sea. These documents will regulate safe oil recovery, including prevention of the sea pollution. It appears that the Caspian region countries made this decision influenced by the events took place on the Mexican Gulf in this April, when oil spilled as a result of the accident at an oil platform.
Thus, given above examples of international cooperation in the Caspian region are significant in the interest of maintenance and extension of trust and partnership between the Caspian countries. It is the process that can become one of the key conditions for positive solution of the Caspian Sea problem itself.
Relevance of maintenance and extension of partnership at various levels is based on active participation in the so-called "big geopolitical game" over the Caspian Sea and its oil and gas resources of the inner powers, including the US, the EU, Turkey and china. As a result of their actions, mostly at the bilateral diplomacy level with the Caspian region countries, search, opening and development of oil and gas deposits on the Caspian Sea and export of oil and gas to mineral markets have passed out of economic plane to political and strategic one.
For example, the US promote their own interest by providing Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan with military and technical help. 2005 Pentagon stated that they intended to found the so-called "Caspian guard" for protection of the pipeline "Baku-Tbilisi-Djeihan" and oil resources of the Caspian Sea from international terrorists. This international military group might include 120 000 military men. Within "the Caspian guard" stations and command centers are going to be deployed, as well as centers for sea and air military operations. The US intended to spend $130 mln on the project.
However, today this project is not being fulfilled. But it doesn't mean the US give up on forming "the Caspian guard" at all. Perhaps they will use the ways and methods different from initial.
In this context other countries of the Caspian region are hostages of difficult relations between the US and Iran. On the one hand, they concern about development of the nuclear industry in Iran, that can lead to creation of nuclear armament. On the other hand, frequently repeated threats of the US to deliver a "preventive strike" to Iran also cause concern. Considering military presence of the USA in the neighboring Afghanistan and Iraq and the fact that they ignore international norms and rules on entering a war by any country, such course of events can become reality.
An expert on the Middle East of the Research center of the US Congress, Kenneth Сatsman, produced a report "Iran: interests and political reactions" and present it to congressmen. For example, this report said that "Iran conducts in the Middle Asia a policy of making a claim for natural resources of the Caspian Sea, that contradicts national interests of Azerbaijan". It is obvious that the US tries to put at odds Azerbaijan with Iran using current contradictions between them.
The European Union, lobbying the project of the long-distance pipeline "Nabucco", also contributes to the climate of mistrust in the Caspian region. Lately official representatives of the EU, particular European countries and commercial companies have actively attracted Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan to join this project. In addition, they try to convince authorities of these countries in profitability of transferring their gas by-passing Russia. Thus, they try to form a negative attitude to Russia. To some extent they succeed in it, considering, for example, inactivity of Turkmenistan in building of the Caspian gas pipeline.
Authors of the "Nabucco" project also try to split the mentioned countries and Iran. In this February the minister for foreign affairs of Iran Manuchehr Mattaki during the meeting with the minister of energy of Turkey Taner Yildiz stated that Iran was interested in participation in the "Nabucco" project. However, on the 23rd of August, the consortium "Nabucco Gas Pipeline International", managing this project, announced that its participants decided to prolong the pipeline from Erzrum (Turkey) to the boundary between Georgia and Iraq and not to built a branch line to Iran. That means, the consortium abandons usage of Iranian gas within future functioning of "Nabucco".
This decision is a part of political and economic blockade of Iran by the USA and their allies, and put Iran in a vulnerable position. However, it enables Iran to approach other countries of the Caspian region in various questions of international cooperation. In the context of international sanctions Russia supported Iran greatly confirming to provide it with oil products. In 2008 Russia proposed to form the Organization for the Caspian Economic Cooperation (OCEC).
Meanwhile, in the late August the minister for foreign affairs of Russia Sergey Lavrov in his interview to an Azerbaijani media said that "... there is every reason to discuss our common problems on cooperation in the sphere of trade, transit and so on within the framework of the structure, that wouldn't be overloaded but would be quite flexible and enable hold a conversation in five-sided format on the projects, demanded multi-sided cooperation". It appears, Russia will raise a question of forming the OCEC in the next Caspian summit.
Thus, developing cooperation on various issues on bilateral and multi-sided base, the Caspian boarding countries gave a good grounding in reviving active negotiations on the main Caspian problem and its positive solution. If the proposal of Russia to form the OCEC is accepted, this process would be advanced. Anyway, there are no other alternatives for the Caspian boarding countries to maintain positive climate on the Caspian Sea and resist negative tendencies of globalization.
Again, we have to admit that the "Caspian five" has only two real choices.
The first direction is an inertial scheme of development all current negative tendencies and tension of the situation on the Caspian Sea. The external forces would encourage this process applying a simple principle "divide and rule". This phenomenon already finds itself in the Caspian region. The external forces do not care to what negative consequences their policy may lead. Creation is not their target. They won't live here. They do not care that the competition, which they promote, can result in military conflicts. Moreover, they plan these conflicts. Otherwise, why do they need such projects as "the Caspian guard"? Their intentions are clear enough, i.e. first of all to boost interregional competition, then to create centers of tension and on the ground of it justify their political, economic and military presence in the Caspian region. There are no variants for guessing what would be ahead. Next the region may be involved in more serious conflicts (the war with Iran). There is also no doubts that all these plans will ruin live of the region. This direction is a way to self-destruction, ecological tragedy and end of development.
The second direction is interregional cooperation. Only those, who are interested in prosperity and peace in the region, able to choose an appropriate and balanced way of cooperation in the Caspian region. Only regional integration enables to avoid conflicts and vital mistakes. Only that way will lead this region of our planet to the best future. The future would be the best for the population of the Caspian region, give new prospects of development, passing the limits of current predatory concepts of using the Caspian resources for well-being of the so-called "golden billion" and fulfillment of their political ventures here.
Sergey Mikheev, Managing director of the Institute for the Caspian Cooperation
