Al-Monitor: "Will Ankara risk beginning an open military conflict with Moscow?"

The New York Times writes that Russia is still the number one threat to the Pentagon. Russia is first on the list of threats to the national security of the US, which is why currently the main task of NATO is the deployment of heavy weapons, armored vehicles and troops in Central and Eastern Europe. In his speech on Tuesday, the US Secretary of Defense named a list of the main threats to the state, which included China, North Korea, Iran, and, finally, the fight against terrorism. But the main threat is invariably Russia.

The fear of the US leadership is associated with the fact that Russia has become much stronger in military terms under President Vladimir Putin. The government has built a network of sophisticated missile defense systems, which increasingly block the access of NATO to European airspace. Over the past two years, the United States, in turn, has increased its military spending, the number of military exercises, as well as built up the NATO forces in Europe. Under the new plan of Carter, the alliance needs to create and maintain the combat-readiness of an armored brigade of 5000 troops in Hungary, Romania and the Baltic countries.

The US actions with the military personnel and the increase of the cost of the army resemble methods that were used by the Pentagon at the height of the war in Afghanistan and then in Iraq. In fact, the American leadership is spending more money on defense than most countries in the world put together. In this case, it is essential to use Russia as the main threat, because then spending on costly weapons will be justified and the military lobby represented in the US government will receive their dividends.

But, in fact, the main threat not only to the US but for the world is the threat of terrorism, first and foremost, on behalf of ISIS. Despite this, the Pentagon continues to rely on a ‘non-existent enemy’, thus not only worsening the relations between the two countries, but also putting into question the competence of the foreign policy of the US leadership.

The international publication Al-Monitor, specializing in the analysis of the events in the Middle East, writes about whether Turkey will risk beginning an open military conflict with Russia. The tensions between two countries continue to grow after the Turkish military shot down the Russian Su-24, which deviated from its original course and entered Turkish airspace. Now the big question is that in case of an armed conflict between the two countries, whether the Republic of Turkey will reach the brink of disaster.

Despite the fact that in the last week Turkey accused Russia of violating its airspace, the government of Davutoglu is criticizing Russia very carefully, trying not to cause even more profound disagreements that could lead to an open conflict. At the same time, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan accuses Russia of provocation, warning that such actions could have ‘serious consequences’

The Turkish media said that the Air Force of the Republic introduced an ‘amber’ standby mode at their military bases and deployed additional aircraft to the Syrian border, although further orders against Russian aircraft have not been made yet.

According to analysts, Ankara is getting extremely incautious in criticizing Moscow and engaging in open conflict with Russia, not only regarding the violation of air borders, but also regarding the Kurdish issue. If there is a real threat of military confrontation, Turkey has a little chance against Russia. The Turkish Republic should not count on the support of NATO, as the alliance is unlikely to go to military action against the Kremlin. At the moment the relations between two countries are going through a deep crisis, but still there is a possibility of de-escalating tensions. To do this, the Turkish leadership has to make concessions and try to establish contact with Moscow.