2011 was not very successful for the Russian economy. Summing up the preliminary results of the year, experts of the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasts (CMASF) explain the phenomenon of low economic growth in the context of high energy product prices.
The head of the macroeconomic line of the CMASF, Dmitry Belousov, said that the very low pace of economic growth (4.5%) in the context of high oil prices on the world market surprises many experts. Earlier, the minister for economic development and trade of Russia, German Gref, stated that 5.5% is the minimum point for support of all necessary social budget projects (before the crisis, the pace of Russian economic growth was 7-8%). This phenomenon can be explained by a serious fall in export growth and a decrease in investment activity.
For positive development, the Russian economy needs to increase its development pace by 1% at least. This problem is a key one on the economic agenda for the next 6 years. One of the possible positive tendencies in the near future is a decrease in import growth on the internal market, Belousiv thinks. According to forecasts, the most favorable situation is observed in the sphere of investments in basic capital, despite serious problems in this sphere in 2011. “Previously, investment flows were prevented by political uncertainty and high external risks, but in 2012 this risk rate will decrease,” the expert explains. Moreover, the investment boom hasn’t touched private investors yet, except for the home construction sector.
A serious slowdown in the growth of private incomes is also obvious. This is caused by correlations of salary rates and productivity of labor: the dynamics of these items became closer. Before the crisis the salary growth (10%) surpassed productivity of labor (5%), this year the items have reduced and become equal in all basic branches. At the same time, pension growth was observed. However, in the near future the budget will have no opportunity to provide growth in real pensions of more than 4%, due to an increase in the number of pensioners.
This year a paradoxical situation is forming: salary growth is 4% in general, while the general growth of the real income of population is only 1% and demand growth is 5%. Such a gap proves that the statistics of real income don’t reflect the real situation. Moreover, during the year the population saving norm has been very low. The high level of credit consumption was maintained. Belousov thinks that in future the credit pace will slow down, meaning a new “consumer boom” won’t take place in the near future.
The unemployment rate is decreasing in Russia. So the unemployment situation in the country has been settled, but this success of the Russian social sphere is connected with a reduction of labor resources.
