Large-scale political intrigue begins in Georgia over new constitution.
Some media outlets briefly informed their readers that the state
constitutional commission which was formed in 2007 (after conflicts
between the police and demonstrators in November) by the order of the
head of the country has finished its work and accepted the basic
project of a new constitution. In the near future, parliament will
start discussing this project and to all appearances before the
parliamentary elections of 2012 the government system of Georgia will
be completely different.
But it is not this formal side that is interesting but rather the
starting of large-scale political intrigue around the project of a new
constitution. According to the current constitution, which was
approved in 1995, Georgia is a presidential republic and the same
person cannot run for president three times in a row. So after the
current (the second from 2004) presidential term of Mikhail
Saakashvili he cannot be a candidate for the post of a president.
This situation increases tension in political circles and society as
since the proclamation of independence in 1991 every change of
government has seen trouble in Georgia. In January 1992 President
Gamsahurdia was deposed as result of military coup and Eduard
Shevardnadze came to power only to be later overthrown as a result of
"The Rose Revolution".
Premier instead of president
The decision of the constitutional commission means that the basis of
the new constitution will be the variant (as far as it is discussed in
the parliament) which transforms Georgia into parliamentarian republic
i.e. a state with a powerful prime-minister and a weak and symbolic
president. Obviously the main candidate for premier will be
Saakashvili.
The head of the constitutional commission Avtandil Demetrashvili does
not conceal that the project increases the chances of Saakashvili and
his team of keeping power after 2013, when regular parliamentary
elections must take place. According to Demetrashvili, "new elections
will be run on the basis of the new constitution and if the United
National Movement wins the elections the ruling party will be able to
suggest any candidate for premier, including Saakashvili." According
to opinion polls, the approval rating of the ruling party is currently
over 50%.
President keeps his word
So, Saakashvili, who many times promised not to run for president
anymore, can keep power and not break his word. He has noted himself
that "the European model of a parliamentary republic is more
appropriate to Georgia, than presidential rule. Of course, the
transformation of the current system will meet the desperate
resistance of the opposition, especially ex-speaker of parliament Nino
Burdzhanadze and ex-Prime-Minister Zurab Nogaideli who both have their
eyes on the position of president. They intend to run for president in
three years but only if the current pattern of separation of powers
and national-wide presidential elections is maintained.
The West will not be against it
The paradox and tragicomic element of the situation is that the
transformation of Georgia into a parliamentary republic is supported
by Georgia's Western "friends" such as the Venice commission of the
Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe which specializes in
constitutional reforms in members of the Council of Europe. They think
the new system is much more democratic. So the protests of the
opposition will cause a puzzling question to be posed by the
Europeans: "Why are you against weakening the presidential regime,
which you called "authoritarian," and why are you against the role of
parliament and the prime-minister?"
The representatives of the ruling party make special mention that
they are not trying to repeat the Russian model. According to ratings,
the second powerful politician in the country is the current mayor of
Tbilisi, Gigi Ugulava. In some journalist and political circles there
is the opinion that Saakashvili and Ugulava intend to repeat Russia's
"successor" operation so that Saakashvili will be premier for some
time and Ugulava president. But this model is unacceptable for the
West and small Georgia is unlikely to be forgiven for following
Russia's path.
Georgy Kalatozishvili, Tbilisi. Exclusively for VK
