Abkhazia: 10 days before elections

There are 10 days until the elections of the President of Abkhazia. According to opinion polls, Sergei Shamba and Alexander Ankvab will receive a roughly equal number of votes. Raul Khajimba still lags far behind. And most experts agree that the winner will be determined only in the second round. 

There is no need to describe in detail the candidates and their programs, as they are well known both in Abkhazia and Georgia, as well as Russia. Moscow is not intervening in the Abkhaz election campaign, after Russian political analysts discredited themselves in the elections in Abkhazia in 2004. The CEC head, Vladimir Churov, said bluntly that "due to the heavy load associated with the preparation of elections to the Duma, Russian public organizations will render most of the support to their Abkhazian colleagues." 

For Georgia, too, it does not really matter who becomes the next President of its former autonomy - pro-Georgian candidates for the presidency of the republic are not running for presidency. Tbilisi is convinced that the final choice among the three candidates would be made by the Kremlin. Georgian politicians justify their position by the fact that "Abkhazia has not known real independence in the three years of independence proclaimed by Moscow."

Of the three contenders, only Ankvab has no direct experience of struggling for the presidency, and is positioning himself as a successor to Sergei Bagapsh. "I trusted Sergei Bagapsh and I trust Alexander Ankvab. He diligently worked with Sergei Bagapsh, and it is impossible not to notice results of their work. I encourage everyone to vote for him,” the head of one of the campaign headquarters urges. 

"To create, increase and protect the heritage of the Republic of Abkhazia is the credo of Ankvab," the members of the Veteran Union of the Patriotic War of the Abkhaz people "Amtsakhara" believe. In recent years Ankvab saw several assassination attempts, leading observers to wonder whose interests may be affected in the event of his coming to power. According to unconfirmed information from a source who wished to remain anonymous, Ankvab has secured the support of important figures in the United Russia party. In particular, Ankvab has the support of the State Duma deputy and former vice-president of Euroasia Holding, Otari Arshba, who served in the KGB and who has influence on the Abkhaz diaspora in Russia, which should bring Ankvab additional votes.

At the same time, during meetings with voters in Abkhazia Ankvab demonstrates blatant democracy. Once he was asked to comment on the point of view according to which if Raul Khadzhimba comes to power Abkhazia will roll back 10 years in its development, while Ankvab in case of winning will only "paint the facades of buildings," and not show real results. "I cannot agree with that statement. Raul Dzhumkovich is an honest, competent person, and there will be no rolling back with him. I would advise those who claim this not to attempt to confuse voters. We have a wise people, and there is no need to try to misinform them with anonymous fables," said Ankvab, whose electorate, according to observers, is mostly constitutated of elderly people.

Shamba, for his part, relies mostly on young people. He was supported by 10 out of 12 members of the Association of Youth Organizations of Abkhazia, mostly students and young professionals, as well as KVN teams "Small Country" and "Sledges of Abkhazia." The pre-election statements of Shamba are also addressed to the youth and have cosmopolitan overtones.

He promises to make Abkhazia "a young European-developed country" and recalls how, in the office of the head of government, he initiated programs to attract economic experts from Israel and Italy. “When I hear that someone wants to bring ‘order’ to Abkhazia, I become very depressed. There are words that have already been discredited in history. The word ‘order’ in the European consciousness is associated with German fascism and Soviet Stalinism”, Shamba says. 

He has already been supported by such iconic figures as Butba Beslan, the head of the Party of Economic Development of Abkhazia, and one of the leaders of the Armenian community, hero of Abkhazia Galust Trapizonyan. Calling Shambu "a true patriot and an internationalist" Trapizonyan recalled his contribution to the establishment of an Armenian battalion named after Marshal Bagramian during the war of 1992-1993, which took part in the war against Georgian troops.

Raul Khajimba, who was once named the successor of Vladislav Ardzinba, is widely supported by the multinational non-governmental organization 'Union of Cossacks of Abkhazia' and an honorary coach of boxer Roman Chirikba. Chirikba said: “The sporting fame and village life will be revived, if you vote in the elections with your heart.” Khajimba himself, trying to get rid of the label "nationalist" (which stuck to him after he had criticized the Abkhaz authorities for opening the republic to Russian business and their unwillingness to provide security without assistance from Moscow) is holding meetings with voters in multi-ethnic villages.

Nevertheless, in strategic cooperation with Russia, Khajimba adheres  to the same point of view as his two rivals. The only question is whether Abkhazia will become a vassal or a full partner of Russia in the cooperation process between the two countries. 

Katerina Tesemnikova. Exclusively for VK