Press conference timed to coincide with the 20th anniversary of Azerbaijan’s independence. The issue was discussed by Russian, Azerbaijani and American experts: Sergey Mikheyev, the head of the Caspian Partnership Institute, Ajar Kurtov, the chief editor of the “Problems of National Strategy” magazine, ex-CIA adviser Paul Goeble, the vice-rector of the Azerbaijani Academy of Diplomacy, Fariz Ismailidze, and the chairman of the Azerbaijani US-Graduates Association, Djeykhun Kyaramov.
Fariz Ismailzade, the deputy chancellor of the Azerbaijani Diplomatic Academy
At last we have a chance to ask our Moscow colleagues a question. First of all we are interested in the role the great powers play in a peaceful resolution of the conflict. Our Moscow colleagues have said that the parties are responsible for the conflict themselves. However, we know that the mediators have a great deal of influence. Armenia is a small country. There are Russian military bases in Armenia and Russian influence on the country is strong indeed. The question is what Russia and the US can do in order to resolve the conflict so that the occupied territories will be freed.
Sergey Mikheyev, the head of the Caspian Cooperation Institute
I understand that the problem of Nagorno-Karabakh is the most acute problem for both Azerbaijan and Armenia, but I believe that the parties should not demand that the question should be a key problem in international relations in general, including Russian-Azerbaijani relations. All the time when we discuss cultural, political or economic cooperation with our Azerbaijani colleagues they demand that we discuss the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Thus they complicate Russian-Azerbaijani bilateral relations. At the same time the Russian Federation is doing its best to solve the problem. Russian leaders cannot call Azerbaijani or Armenian leaders and order them to find a solution. There is no more USSR, no one can order the parties what to do. If someone in Brussels or in Washington has such power, he should better use it. We have no such power. It’s an illusion that we can tell the Caucasian states what they should do. You should understand that all you’ve just said we hear from the Armenians as well. The only difference is in language. All this forces us to ask: “Why don’t you talk to each other?” Maybe it would be better than complaining that Russia isn’t trying to settle the matter. Russia is often accused of imperial ambitions. Still, Azerbaijan and Armenia are asking us to call their opponents and force them to sign an agreement. However, Armenia is not a republic inside the Russian Federation and Baku is not a Russian regional center. There is no empire nowadays. That also means that there no ways to solve this conflict involving Russia. It’s useless to discuss which side Russia would support if war began. Russia wouldn’t support any side, Russia is doing everything possible to prevent such a war. Maybe that’s just my personal opinion, but I do believe that what I’ve just said is true.
Adzhar Kurtov, the editor-in-chief of the National Strategy Issues magazine
I agree with almost all of what Sergey has just said, except for the last thesis that Russia wouldn’t support any side in case of war and that Russia would remain neutral in such circumstances. The recently-signed agreement shows that the situation would be different. Previously Russia only had to support Armenia if it was engaged in a war with some country that wasn’t a former-USSR member (which Azerbaijan most certainly is), which meant Turkey or Iran. However, now Russia promises to support Armenia in the case of any war, even a possible war with Azerbaijan.
Certainly that doesn’t mean that in case of war Russia would automatically support Armenia. Of course, Russia would adopt a well-balanced policy. Still, I agree with my colleague that Russia should prevent such a scenario. I do understand that Azerbaijan demands that international law should be respected, but the Armenians actually tell us the same. Only they use other formulas, those that are more useful for them. Both parties exploit international law. The problem is that one such formula applies to internal affairs and another to international relations. Still, the parties act as lawyers, but Russia should act as a judge, Russia should remain impartial.
In fact I don’t see that the parties are ready to start a dialogue. I believe that conflict resolution is studied in the Azerbaijani Diplomatic Academy as a special discipline. This discipline teaches us that any conflict may be resolved only through bilateral talks involving the two parties engaged in the conflict. The conflict we are talking about involves Azerbaijan and Nagorno-Karabakh. The last one doesn’t take part in the peace talks, as Azerbaijan doesn’t recognize it as a legitimate body. Azerbaijan says the conflict involves Azerbaijan and Armenia, thus Azerbaijan ignores the real opponent. That’s what I think of it.
Paul Goble, political analyst, former CIA and the State Department staff expert
First of all, the US can state that we have no power to dictate to the parties what to do. As opposed to Moscow, we never had such power and we will never have it. Of course we want this conflict to be resolved. In addition to what I’ve just said, I underline that no country, 20 per cent of whose territory is occupied, will never stop drawing international attention to such a fact. When a conflict is a prolonged one, it may seem natural to treat the involved parties equally. In fact, the difference between a country that is occupied and an aggressor is great.
And the last one. Speaking about international law, I should say that I believe that the conflict will be resolved after the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan is re-established. That’s quite hard to do. It won’t be an easy task. Still, these twenty years of Azerbaijan’s independence have proved that there is still hope. In the coming decades Azerbaijan will become even more influential. We live in a globalised world, Azerbaijan understands this. It will continue to establish relations with other countries of the world and won’t stop drawing international attention to the fact of occupation. We believe that the parties will come to agreement and people of all ethnic groups will live in peace. The last two decades have shown that it’s possible.
Fariz Ismailzade, the deputy chancellor of the Azerbaijani Diplomatic Academy
Several short remarks from Baku. I am surprised to see what great irritation is caused by the discussion of Moscow’s role as a mediator. Russia is a co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group. Russia has taken this responsibility itself. No one forced Russia to agree to serve as mediator. That is why it’s quite natural for Azerbaijan to ask Russia's or US’ assistance in the conflict resolution. Also, let us be fair when speaking about Russia’s influence on Armenia. We know for certain that Russia delivers arms to Armenia in the framework of the Joint Security Forces Organization or bilateral cooperation programs. We are not children; we understand that Russia’s influence on Armenia is strong. Still, we consider Russia to be a positive force, we believe Russia will use its power to help us to resolve the conflict. Definitely Azerbaijan is irritated, because 20 per cent of its territory is occupied. We believe that President Medvedev as a mediator will contribute to the resolution of the conflict. However, there are no results from his activity yet. Armenia hasn’t stopped its occupation of Azerbaijani territory, I underline, Armenia as a sovereign state and not the self-proclaimed republic of Nagorno-Karabakh. The case itself is unprecedented in European history.
