In the context of growing tension between West and Iran, clouds gather over the main ally of Tehran – the regime of Bashar Assad in Syria. West tries to pressure Damask by political and economic measures yet, but turn to military scenario is quite possible. The Iranian crisis and developments in Syria are closely connected. It is indirectly proved by the statement of the deputy aide of the president on national security Ben Rods. Rods said that existing problems of Tehran (sanctions and international isolation) can lead to collapse of the Syrian government under Assad’s management.
Of course, only closeness between Syria and Iran is not enough for beginning of activity in overthrowing of Assad. Moreover, a revolution doesn’t happen by a foreign order. At the same time, it was influenced by Arab Spring and accumulated social and political problems in Syria, and the regime by Assad has found itself at the edge of collapse. In this situation striving of the US to consider the Syrian factor in the Iranian crisis is a reasonable step.
The other question is: will West and the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf cross the line in the Syrian issue?
It is interesting that on January 13th one of Arab countries stated on necessity of military interference with the situation in Syria. On the background of an actual failure of the observers’ mission of the League of Arab States, Emir of Qatar, Sheik Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani stated on possibility of launching troops to Syria for “preventing murders of civil people by President Bakhar Assad,” RIA Novosti reports. From the very beginning of Arab Spring Qatar stood for revolutionary movements, and Qatar’s TV-channel Al Jazeera became a megaphone for Arab revolutionists. However, Al Jazeera is the most professional information service in the Middle East.
Meanwhile, the Syrian opposition stated on establishing of the Supreme Military Council headed by the Syrian general Mustafa Ahmed Al-Sheik. He has recently defected from the Syrian army and shifted to the opposition. Hurriyet reports that Al-Sheik was the second most important military man in the north of Syria, and it is said he was a representative of the special services, which are hated by the opposition so much. At the moment, he is in Turkey. Al-Sheik says he turned his back on the regime of Assad after he witnessed raping of a 20-year-old girl, who was a bride of an oppositionist, by Syrian Special Forces. The recently established Supreme Military Council will coordinate activity of the Syrian opposition, which now has both military and political branches – the so-called Free Syrian Army under management of General Al-Assad and the Syrian National Council under chairmanship of Burkhsn Galyun. Hurriyet reported that in Turkey a meeting between Al-Sheik, Al-Assad and Galyun was held, where they discussed mutual actions against Bashar Assad’s regime.
It seems the Syrian opposition is establishing a structured system. After getting rid of amorphous character of the opposition movement the Syrian opposition will be even more dangerous for Bashar Assad. And it shouldn’t be underestimated. Free Syrian Army includes 40,000 soldiers, who defected from the regular army of Syria. However, it is too early to say that these forces are seriously dangerous for military men devoted to Bashar Assad. In addition to numerous and qualitative advantages of infantry Assad has another trump – effective Air Forces. Unlike Libya no decisions on air-exclusion zone were made toward Syria. Moreover, Russia and China stand against repetition of the Libyan scenario in Syria.
At the same time, a military campaign against Syria is only a possibility rather than a real adopted strategy. On the other hand, political fate of the Syrian authorities is defined by military measures. Even though military balance is in favor of Bashar Assad’s regime at the moment, it is doubtful how long he can be sure in loyalty of his army. Here other kind of Russian support is important for Bashar Assad.
After timely arrest of the ship Chariot, which sailed from Russia, new discussions of facts Russia provides Syria with armament appeared. It is true that when the ship was inspected in the port of Limassol it was found out that the receiver of “the dangerous cargo” (no further details were given by Cyprus customers) was the Defense Ministry of Syria. As the Russian crew promised not to call at a Syrian port, the ship was set free. However, later the Turkish mass media reported Chariot came to the Syrian port Tartus. Reuters’ sources reported that Chariot came to Tartus on January 11th. At the same time, the sources refused to comment on the fact Chariot carried armament to Syria from Rosoboronexport. The USA expressed its concern on the Russian ship might carry a military cargo. As there is no sanctions of the UN against Syria, Russia didn’t promise not to provide Syria with armament.
Meanwhile, civil conflict on the streets of Syrian cities enhances. And the statement of Qatar’s Emir proves that not really Western states might launch military forces in Syria, but the countries of the Persian Gulf. It is difficult to say what foreign player will be a winner in the Syrian conflict. The former political system of the Middle East will hardly exist onward. But what model will replace it, is not clear yet.
Orkhan Sattarov. Exclusively to VK
