By VK
Sources close to Russian Foreign Ministry dismissed rumors suggesting that Russia was ready to give its unofficial consent for military operation in Iran in exchange for the West’s non-interference in Syria. Russia is against a military solution to the ‘Iranian nuclear problem’ and warns the West that stressing the sanctions to the detriment of negotiations may lead only to escalation of the conflict.
This unambiguous position of Moscow can be explained by the fact that a military operation in Iran would certainly prove to be a serious challenge for Russia. Most experts agree with this opinion. According to the RAS Institute of Eastern Studies expert Alexander Skakov, the Kremlin hasn’t yet elaborated any actual plans of action in case of a military intervention in Iran. “Moscow isn’t interested in any armed conflict in the region, especially in Iran, as we have complicated yet beneficial relations with this country.”
However, according to the expert, no military operation in Iran possible until Turkey and the West get what they want in Syria. But when the Assad regime falls one could predict a military strike against Iran in two or three months, or even sooner. Mr Skakov also suggested that the US will most definitely get Georgia’s support in their venture against Iran and it is possible that this subject has already been discussed during the recent meeting of Obama and Saakashvili. So the US is capable of gathering a wide anti-Iranian coalition, which will include Turkey, Georgia, Israel and the monarchies of the Persian Gulf. Turkey will participate in it as, despite its ’no problems with neighbors’ policy it has problems with all its neighbors, including Iran, while Saudi Arabia is a traditional rival of Iran. The only possible difference of interests within the coalition, according to the expert, is that the US wants to weaken Iranian regime, while the Gulf States hope to overthrow it completely.
“I can’t see any factors capable of restraining this aggression, apart from the unlikely case where Assad is able to hold on to power in Syria”, Skakov suggested. Western experts have no doubt that Iran is creating a nuclear bomb (despite all its rhetoric). According to Skakov, it would be equal to political suicide if current Iranian regime having learned from the fate of Libya wouldn’t try to create the bomb. The bomb, for example, guaranteed the future of the North Korean regime. Creation of an atomic bomb is only a matter of time for Iran, and this time will also be taken into consideration when the West decides when to strike Iranian nuclear facilities.
At the same time, Mr Skakov is sure that Azerbaijan won’t let the US military to have bases on its territory or to use its aerodromes, as Azerbaijan doesn’t want to get involved into this venture. However, if the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict turns into a shooting war again, it is possible that international forces would enter the region thus opening the way to Azerbaijan for NATO and US troops.
As for the situation in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Skakov suggested that a military operation in Iran wouldn’t strongly affect the situation in South Ossetia as it is preoccupied with its internal affairs. However, it would influence Abkhazia, as it has close ties to Turkey.
“Of course, the Americans would have felt themselves much more comfortable if they were to unleash the war in Iran having a UN Security Council resolution to back them up, but we have observed the US taking action without any UN resolutions as well”, the expert concluded.
