On February 12 Turkmenistan elected a president. According to the Central Electoral Committee (CEC), the current head of the state, Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov, received 91.14% of the vote. “The people of Turkmenistan voted for stability, for the current course aimed at improvement of living standards, and for economic growth,” the head of the mission of CIS observers, the executive secretary of the CIS, Sergey Lebedev, thinks. Turkmenistan’s choice is commented on by VK experts.
Head of the Center of Social-Political Research, Vladimir Yevseev
The situation was predictable. First of all, there is no alternative. At least, the authorities do their best for such an alternative not to exist.
We can condemn Syria, but I met opposition leaders in Damascus. It means that democracy is developed there. It means a dialogue takes place. There are forces which are ready for dialogue, and if foreign forces don’t interfere in internal affairs it will be easier to organize the dialogue. The authorities are ready for participation in a dialogue not only with the internal opposition, but also the opposition based in other countries of the world. As for Turkmenistan, the situation seems to be frozen. It is not changing. Not only does voter participation seem to be too high, but also the number of voters in Turkmenistan is ambiguous. It raises concerns, as we shouldn’t hope for the situation to be maintained. Last year there were serious events around an explosion at an aircraft base. Events could destabilize the situation. Thank God, it didn’t happen. However, serious problems connected with territorial resettlement of people do exist. I hope I will visit Ashkhabad in June, and after that I will understand the situation clearly.
Director of the International Institute of Political Expertise, Yevgeny Minchenko
Turkmenistan's thaw appeared to be short. During the five years of his presidential term, Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov rejected all the most extravagant features of the former regime. At the moment the political system of Turkmenistan is relatively stable, but an effort to make it more open is dangerous for the regime, as it could provoke an inter-clan conflict. Because of restriction of gas export routes and protests by major importers against an “average European” price for energy, Turkmenistan lacks capital resources, which negatively influences implementation of investment projects. Despite diversification of gas exports, Ashkhabad’s choice is narrow. It would be reasonable to improve relations with Moscow and Gazprom, which is able to increase gas imports this year even. Counting on China as the key importer, Turkmenistan falls under another dependency. Turkmenistan is very vulnerable in the context of possible destabilization in Afghanistan and a military campaign against Iran.
Senior scientist of the Euro Atlantic Security Center under MSUFA, Andrey Kazantsev
Nothing could be a surprise in such elections as those in Turkmenistan. The result was predictable. There are two versions why they were needed. Western analysts think that Berdymukhamedov had to confirm his legitimacy inside the country, as social-economic problems caused disturbances of the population. Moreover, on the day the elections were announced a big tragedy took place – according to officials,
pyrotechnics exploded, according to the Western media, a military depot exploded near Ashkhabad and a nearby town was destroyed.
Russia considers the elections as the desire by Berdymukhamedov to improve his image as a reformer, first of all, abroad. The idea is not bad, as the regime became more liberal than the regime of Saparmurat Niyazov. But it is obvious that the regime hasn’t reached European standards. No opposition candidates participate in the elections. The OSCE didn’t even send its observers.
