The whole week the world’s media attention was drawn to the incident with ‘Toulouse shooter’ who had been finally neutralsed yesterday. According to the French media, he deemed himself ‘executing revenge for the children of Palestine’. Yesterday experts from Moscow and Tel-Aviv discussed the situation in Palestine in the frames of the video-link ‘Palestinian-Israeli conflict’.
Shalom Arari, the former advisor of the Defense Ministry of Israel on Arab Affairs
Today the whole Middle East is shaken by the developments. When we speak about peacemaking treaties in the context of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, we see that the situation becomes clear. We see two main problems. The first problem is the treaty, and I was one of developers of it. You know that we still have weak positions. There is the Palestinian state, Fatakhtan, as we call it. And the second problem is the Gaza Strip. Where do they want Israelis to live? Back in the sea or Russia? Moreover, the Palestine Liberation Organization is not recognized, Abu Mazen isn’t recognized. Today the situation is more difficult than it used to be. The Gaza Strip has a new administration. And we can say that the influence of the Islamist movements is growing, as they move forward in Libya, Egypt and other countries. These are global jihad organizations, which dare the Hamas government of the Gaza Strip to organize a real Hamastan. About seven different forces try to interfere in the situation; that is why it has become so difficult.
Ehud Dekel, the former head of the negotiation headquarters of Ehud Olmetr’s government
We are sure that Palestine, Islamists, Jihadists, and other organizations will try to use their power against us as soon as they have such an opportunity, as soon as they have a reason. Because the main concept of rebellion is a nice camouflage for hiding real terrorist activity. I think the next round of confrontation is very close, notwithstanding all our efforts on postponing it. As it is very important for us and the Palestinian people in this situation if they want any stability. You have started our discussion from mentioning the peacemaking treaty with the Gaza Strip. In fact we have no such treaty. We have mutual understanding that it is necessary, but unfortunately, each side understands it in its own way. We would like somebody broadcast them the reality in a different way. I’m afraid future events will be very pessimistic. Yes, we should be responsible, concerning this affair. We say that Gaza is controlled by Hamas at the moment. Hamas should take almost national responsibility for the population of the Gaza strip. What have we seen in recent times? They decided not to stop terrorists who started missile attacks on the peaceful population. And this is bad. Of course, heavy criticism against Hamas is observed. They are criticized for not preventing murders. In this situation it is very difficult to predict future events. I think we should be ready for the next wave of the conflict's escalation.
Alexander Shumilin, the head of the Analysis Center of Middle Eastern Conflicts under the USA and Canada Institute of the Russian Academy of Science
Considering the terrorist attack in Toulouse, the tragedy is directly connected with the situation in the Middle East. And we should understand it in various aspects. The terrible terrorist attack committed by the criminal who openly stated about his belonging to Al Qaeda. The reaction of leaders of almost all countries of Europe is no less important. Mrs. Ashton’s mistake is quite typical for understanding of the situation in the Middle East by the European leaders. They try to balance, to equalize terrorists and their victims. And it was stated at such a top level yesterday. I’m really sorry. Of course the situation is very difficult and develops in unexpected and unpredicted directions around Israel. Would the Islamic factor strengthen? It is ambiguous. The appearance of soft Islamists in power… I repeat, as it is important to understand that propaganda materials, which often exaggerate the issue, say that Islamists have captured power, at least, they will do it tomorrow. It is not true. Islamists participate in administration at the current period. And it is natural, because they were a force suppressed by dictatorships; a force that people do not suspect of dealing with withdrawn dictators and former elites. That is why this process should be considered as the inevitable identification of Egyptians, Tunisians and Muslims living in Europe who voted for soft Islamists. They are in search of a new identity. And soft Islam is a significant element of it.
Tatyana Nosenko, senior scientist of the Israel Department under the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences
The religious factor is one of the factors in the Palestinian-Israeli confrontation. In recent decades this factor is being intensified. Both sides suggest ways of settling the conflict, considering religious aspects too. As for influence of Islamist political forces in neighboring Arab countries, we shouldn’t discuss influence on further development of the confrontation. The main point here is influence on relations between Israel and its nearest neighbors. Here we have less optimistic prospects and more optimistic prospects. A change of the situation in Egypt… we cannot say in what direction the event will develop. Will the Islamist forces insist on changes for the worse for Israel? Some experts think that coming to power will make them take softer positions and reduce the radical degree of plans that were typical for them for a long time. However, more pessimistic developments shouldn’t be excluded. It could lead to a reconsideration of some agreements that exist between Israel and Egypt, I mean the Camp David Agreements and the peacemaking treaty. Under pressure from radical forces this treaty could be reconsidered. The same concerns Jordan, where strengthening of Islamist forces in the government is possible. Whether the Jordanian King can resist these forces or not is important for further development of relations between Jordan and Israel. In Syria the situation is unclear. It is difficult to predict how it will develop. If the opposition comes to power in Syria, it could bring disadvantages for Israel in the sphere of achievements reached under the former regime. The whole process of relations between Syria and Israel could turn in a negative direction.
Islamists who are considered as soft… The final aim of these parties is destroying Israel. They think that Israeli territory, including not only Jerusalem, but also Haifa and other cities, is a holy land of Muslims. That’s what they think. For example, Hamas. Yes, Hamas is more pragmatic than Islamist Jihadists, because they feel national responsibility. They need electricity for the population, they should provide the population with necessary supplies. They have no time for rebellion. They want water and electricity from Israel, as they have to provide their people with it. Therefore, the only differences are methods and speed. But their final target is the weakening of Israel and withdrawing it from the world map. It is their words. We talk about different kinds of Islamist movements. It is a great problem as a whole. This problem will make Israel finally change its approach in dealing with the Arab countries. The main objective has always been the settlement of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Today we can only restrain this conflict suggesting a method after a method.
For protecting our civil population, we should fight against those who try to wipe us off the world map. The point is not that Israel wants to occupy the Gaza Strip and start a military campaign, we have left that behind several years ago. We started from the statement that there is no real power that could control the situation there. We have no right to sit and wait until a new missile destroys a school or a kindergarten. The last operation was successful, as we managed to intercept missiles due to our missile defense system. But some missiles destroyed sensitive targets in the civil territory. The life of one of Israel’s regions was destroyed. And we know the factors that permanently influence shaking stability. Terrorist attacks against the peaceful population is the main problem.
Ehud Dekel
We can see some positive trends in the Middle East. But I’m afraid these trends won’t be significant in the near future. We should look further. When people participate in the creation of their future, it is an important trend in the Middle East. The question is what Israel can do to make a positive contribution to the general process in the Middle East. We should insist on a peaceful settlement of the conflict with Palestine. But the problem is that the Palestinians do not want it. They don’t consider Israel and its current government as a partner. Moreover, they prefer not to participate in the process of a peace settlement. Why? Because they understand they cannot achieve their targets through negotiations. They prefer to go another way: achieve recognition of their rights by the international community. You can see, three years ago they rejected a generous proposal by the Israeli government. In fact they didn’t say either “yes” or “no,” they simply disappeared. Now we can see their tactics. They want to stake their rights rather than sit at the negotiating table and solve the problem. I believe that we can do something positive in this situation. Of course, it is difficult. I can give you a lot of reasons why we have no permanent negotiations, but a transitional period for improving the situation is what we want. And I believe it is possible. You know we are interested in it. We want to provide our citizens with a peaceful life, and these are positive trends.
Alexander Shumilin
The main engines of the processes are the initiatives of certain countries. For example, Russia vetoed the resolution on Syria and the political landscape in the Middle East and in the world had changed. I would like to continue the discussion about the role of Iran. The main problem is confrontation between the Middle East bloc of the Sunni states, plus Israel, the US and Europe and Iran. The Iranian threat has a new form of expression due to the Syrian problem. I remind you that 3-4 days ago Mr. Ahmed, who is appointed by Fatah to negotiate on re-establishing peaceful relations with Hamas, stated that Iran stands behind Hamas, Tehran continues to supply Hamas with armaments, pushes it into certain activities. Here several questions arise. If we look at the wider situation, the Syrian situation significantly influences the events in Gaza, i.e. Hamas’s leaders withdraw from Syria and shift their headquarters to other Arab states, Qatar, Egypt, and Jordan. Therefore, we witness the process which I would call the arabization of Hamas. But still Iran’s influence on Hamas is felt. Iran has strengthened its position and has begun putting greater pressure on Hamas for it to attack Israel. The general trend of Hamas’s arabization, when Hamas would be under greater pressure from their Islamic brothers in Egypt, this is the main basis of Hamas… Moreover, if it were influenced by Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other Arab monarchies, which are concerned with confrontation with Iran much more than with the conflict between Israel and Gaza. The Iranian factor leads to consolidation of the bloc opposing Tehran. Probably it would cause a re-orientation of the Hamas administration. What would the result of a struggle between pro-Iranian and pro-Arab forces within Hamas be? I think it will result in a victory for the pro-Arab leaders. And maybe Hamas would be under greater influence… I remind you that Hamas was ignored and isolated by the Arab monarchies because of its connection with Iran. But now Hamas fits into ideological and political relations in the region. All these influences would lead to Hamas’s weakening. It can probably be viewed as a positive factor, as it is better than a pro-Iranian Hamas.
Tatyana Nosenko
In recent decades the role of the international community, the role of the quartet and the UN, have undergone serious erosion. I can give you a series of reasons why this was happening. First of all, the situation in the Middle East has changed dramatically. The international legal base that lay at the foundation of previous attempts at a settlement turned old. I think this is one of the significant reasons for all international efforts failing and do not lead to any progress. Another important aspect is that during recent decades the double standards in politics, implemented all over the world, have discredited the role of the international community. As a result, achievements reached by force are paramount. Here I can see a serious problem for the world and the international organizations. Reconsideration of the legal basis for a settlement of the Middle East conflict is number one on the agenda. There is a refugee problem, a border problem and other problems that should be considered in a different perspective, realizing the reality in the region. I think Russia could initiate new progresses in this sphere. Probably the situation in the Arab world could be used for development of new approaches and international legal norms.
Ehud Dekel
The main problem is the mistrust between the Israeli government and leaders of the Palestinian administration such as Mahmoud Abbas. The Annapolis talks between our PM Ehud Olmetr and Mr Abbas were quite productive as they trusted each other, but there are no signes of this trust between Abbas and Netanyahu.
What is the main goal of the talks? We try to organize them in such a manner that all the agreements could be implemented on practice, so that we could change the actual state of affairs for the better, it isn’t paper that matters. I’m not sure that today we are ready to discuss permanent peace, or even a permanent truce. But that’s not the point, it doesn’t matter how you call it, it may be a ‘transition truce’, the principle thing is to make the actual situation better. But unfortunately today I don’t see the maturity to take such decisions in Palestine and, maybe, even in Israel either.
