On April, 8 Armenia officially launched parliamentary election campaigning. 8 parties take part in it, as well as 1 pre-election coalition. Today during our video-link with Yerevan we will discuss the chances of the competing parties to win, as well as the chances of the competitors to enter the parliament, and, of course, we’ll address the issue of how the outcome of the elections will influence the relations between Armenia and Russia.
Alexander Iskanderyan, political expert, head if the Caucasian institute
The election will definitely result in a new political coalition, and I even believe that this new coalition won’t be a ‘toy coalition’ anymore. I think that the majoritarian system will allow the ruling Republican party to win a considerable number of parliamentary seats, as well as the ‘Prosperous Armenia’ party. I also think that the opposition Armenian National Congress will enter the parliament, as well as the Dashnaktsutyun (Armenian Revolutionary Federation). I think that the ‘Heritage’ party has serious chances to get to the parliament, and it is also possible that the ‘State of Law’ would pass. I think that it is unlikely that any other parties would get to the parliament. Anyway, the parliament will consist of three or four parties, which gives it enough diversity. I don’t believe that any party would get the parliamentary majority, that is, 67 votes, not to say the constitutional majority. I believe that the republicans would not be able to win enough parliamentary seats for that. I will remind the journalists from Moscow that the Armenian Parliament has 131 seats.
The campaigning is very intense, as far as I can tell, the rivalry is strong. As for Armenia’s position towards its relations with Russia after the elections – and I understand that some of the journalists in Moscow are very interested in this particular aspect of the problem – I think that the election outcome will have no influence on the two states’ relation. All the competing parties, no matter the rhetoric, don’t bring the present format of our relations into question. They have minor disagreements, but all the listed parties want to maintain the relations with Russia on the present level.
Alexander Krylov, leading expert of the RAS International Relations Institute, the president of the Scientific Society for Caucasian studies
I don’t think we have to expect any drastic changes in the Russian-Armenian relations mostly due to the fact that Armenia finds itself in a complicated position on the international scene, and this situation is getting worse. The current position of Armenia is complicated by the situation in Iraq, in Afghanistan, in the Middle East as well as by the developments in Azerbaijan. The increase of tension in the zone of the Karabakh conflict makes Armenia seek out for guarantees of its safety, and the only state that can give such guarantees for now is Russia. Some time ago this issue was discussed, Armenia tried to find an alternative, but the experience (in particular, the experience of 2008) shows that for now any foreign guarantees are not stable. So it is only natural that there are no parties in Armenia that are ready to commit political suicide and turn away from Russia.
But the general development of the situation is rather interesting: for example, the issue of women representation in the Parliament was addressed. I don’t know how are they going to arrange it, but they say that women should occupy at least 6% of the parliamentary seats. Of course, it raises a question: why only 6%, if women form more than 6% of Armenian population? And how can they guarantee it? If the results of the elections would give only 5% to women/ Will some men have to cede their seats to women? But in any case the very fact that the gender issue was addressed is very comforting. It shows that today’s Armenian democracy – and all the democracies of the Caucasus have their own national flavors, especially the Armenian one – is getting closer to the Western model.
Alexander Skakov, coordinator of the Center of Central Asia, Caucasus, Ural and Povolzhye region Research enter under the Institute of Eastern Studies
As for the prognosis for the election’s outcome, I think we all have consensus: first rank includes the ruling Republican party and the ‘Prosperous Armenia’ party. Second rank is represented by the Armenian National Congress, and the third one by the Dashnak party. But what matters in this outcome, is the level of transparency and honesty during these elections. If the legitimacy of their outcome is put to a doubt, it will destabilize the political situation within Armenia as well as weaken its international positions. No one would have any regard for an illegitimate government. And some forces have already express their doubts about the legitimacy of the upcoming elections, mostly external, but the Armenian society itself isn’t so confident about the elections either. I think that Russia is most interested in the legitimate outcome of the elections, of stable development of its partnership with Armenia. Russia doesn’t what another Kirgizia on the post-Soviet space, where the people take the streets to get rid of illegitimate power. I hope it won’t happen in Armenia. As for the parties’ programs, I have a feeling –I don’t know, maybe, I’m mistaken - that they don’t have any actual programs, it is more of a competition of general trends. The main competitors’ programs don’t differ between each other in any principle aspects. The latest congress of the ruling party showed that all these programs are nothing but empty words, there were no concrete offers as far as economy or foreign policy is concerned. And I see it as a source of serious concern for us, as Armenia is facing serious economic and political problems now, these problems are connected, as my colleague has mentioned, to the situation in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria and Nagorno-Karabakh escalation. And there’s also the background, yet permanent problem of the Armenia’s relations with Turkey. I see no actual programs to resolve these issues in any of the leading parties’ programs. How are they going to guide Armenia through all of these difficulties – I don’t know.
Alexander Iskanderyan, political expert, head if the Caucasian institute
Our region isn’t the calmest spot of the globe. There’s the risk of the situation in Karabakh getting out of hand, or that the change of power in Armenia would be illegitimate. But I would also add that since 1995 Armenia is used to illegitimate or semi-legitimate governments, so we are well adapted to such a situation. Yes, our neighbors are not Luxemburg or Belgium, and the situation in our region has been complicated since forever. Azerbaijan doesn’t make any peaceful statements, and has never made them. Armenia and its ruling elites have long adapted to such adverse conditions. I don’t believe that the parliament or the government will be fully legitimate no matter how the elections are held. Not a single election cycle has passed in Armenia since 1995 without the losing party challenging the elections’ results. The rotation of power has never been fully accepted by the public. So I’m not talking about fair elections – it’s a separate complex topic and frankly I don’t know what it is, but we can still make a considerable step ahead as far as the legitimacy of the parliament is concerned. Sociologists say that the major part of Armenians doesn’t trust any of the political forces, and no drastic changes are to be expected here. The process of the political culture development takes time.
I don’t think that Azerbaijan would change the character of its rhetoric any time soon – it is a vital juncture in their national policy. I don’t believe that all will change for the better in a matter of seconds, that democracy will prevail in Afghanistan, the Iran would become best friends with the US, etc. All these problems will remain. But these elections might give us a chance to feel a bit better in the existing adverse conditions. These elections could give us solid basis for future presidential polls and for the improvement of our position in the region in general. It doesn’t mean that it will happen, but this campaign is the first one to have a fair shot at it.
