Interview by Susanna Petrosian, Yerevan. Exclusively for VK
Armen Badalian, the renowned political consultant, answers the questions of VK regarding the peculiarities of the electoral campaign which has started in Armenia and the possible distribution of forces after the elections to the National Assembly scheduled for May 6.
- What political forces today are the main rivals?
- Although nine political forces (8 parties and 1 political bloc) will participate in the elections, the competition will actually take place between five of them - the ruling Republican Party of Armenia (RPA), the "Prosperous Armenia" coalition (BHK), the parliamentary opposition represented by Dashnaktsutyun and "Heritage", and an extra-parliamentary opposition bloc - the Armenian National Congress (ANC). The main struggle is between the two most powerful forces - the RPA and the BHK.
- But the BHK is a coalition party. How can a bitter struggle take place between it and the Republican Party?
- It is a struggle for power, and the coalition has nothing to do with it. During an election campaign, all coalitions disappear. For example, in Germany, where in 2006 a grand coalition was created including both the Christian Democratic Party and the Social Democratic Party. However, a month before the elections, the de jure existing coalition has de facto ceased to exist. These forces started fighting each other to get most votes in the new parliament. Something similar is happening now in Armenia.
- Experts believe that the RPA, BHK, ANC and the Dashnaktsutyun (ARF) will get seats in the parliament. Is there any chance for the "Heritage" party and the coalition of the "Rule of Law." What is your forecast?
- The RPA, BHK and the ANC will get in for sure, there will be no problems. However, there is one important point: in the case of free and fair elections, none of these forces will have more than 50% plus one vote, that is, none of them will have more than 67 seats, because none of these forces have such an impact on society (there are 131 members in the Armenian Parliament – VK). I doubt that the Dashnaktsutyun will overcome the 5 percent barrier. There are two reasons - objective and subjective. The first lies within the change of values in our society as compared to 1988, when the mentality of the population of Soviet Armenia was much more nationalistic (here socio-economic conditions played their role and as a consequence - large-scale migration from the country).
The subjective reason is the poor performance of the ARF, which was reflected in a tendency for a decrease in the votes received by Dashnaktsutyun. At the parliamentary elections in 2007, the ARF received about 180 thousand votes, at the presidential elections in 2008 - 90 thousand voters, according to the results of elections in the Yerevani mayor's office in May 2009 – 18,000. The capital is home to nearly half the population of the country. Thus, there is a clear downward trend in the electorate of this party from election to election by 50%. It is possible that the ARF will not pass through to the Parliament.
The leader of the "Rule of Law," Artur Baghdasaryan, before the presidential election of 2008 had the image of a fighter for the social rights of the population. But on March 1, 2008, when the political struggle in the country reached a critical moment, he moved to the side of Serge Sargsyan and betrayed his electorate, which perceived him as a fighter for justice. The frustration of his voters was manifested by tearing the party campaign posters to shreds and throwing them into urns after its recent rally. In the case of fair elections, the "Rule of Law" will not pass through to the parliament, but it might in case of a "virtual electorate". Today, there are already several hundred thousand people who are outside the country or are already dead in the State Register.
- Who needs the "Rule of Law" party in the parliament and why?
- If the Republican Party receives more than 67 seats, it would not be able to explain to the public how it achieved this number in a difficult socio-economic situation and against the background of great migration. A distrust of society can lead to complaints, which in turn will cause resentment of the West, which promised that in the case of fair elections it will provide funds.
- What are the chances of the "Heritage" party getting into parliament?
- It is not the "Heritage", which used to exist from 2007 to 2011. Today it is already another party with candidates from civil society and the "Free Democrats" running according to proportional lists. Representatives of the "Free Democrats" announced that if they are elected, they will seek to ensure that Armenia strengthens the western component of the complementary foreign policy. In their view, Armenia has to focus on the West. The realization of the project of the "new" "Heritage" is centered on the interests of the West, which feels necessary to keep a pro-Western, anti-Russian force in the Armenian parliament. Moreover, the project does not cause dissatisfaction at 26 Baghramian (Baghramian Avenue is the address of the presidential palace - VK).
The new "Heritage" has two ideologies that contradict each other. On the one hand, there is the ideology of Ah-Dat (Armenian question – VK), which is evident in promotional videos of the party leader, Raffi Hovannisian. On the other hand, the "Free Democrats" talk about the need for European integration, assuming no problems with Armenia's neighbors.
The second contradiction is associated with the image of the party leader. It is obvious that the image of Raffi Hovhannisyan is of a strong and rigid policy, it is evident from how his rhetoric became harsher, but it does not work, because a strong personality does not go on a hunger strike, as Hovhannisyan did a year ago. I cannot imagine how powerful political figures, such as Margaret Thatcher or Putin, could declare a hunger strike, which is considered an extreme method of fighting.
The presence of two contradictions in this case is not a barrier, because the "new Heritage" project is aimed at the future, focusing on ensuring a pro-Western force in the Armenian parliament. Perhaps due to the "virtual electorate", the "Heritage" party will pass through to the parliament.
- What is the main intrigue of the elections?
- The only question is whether the Republican Party (with the "Rule of Law" or without it) will have more than half the seats. Two entirely different political landscapes will be formed. The intrigue is whether the Republican Party will receive more than 67 seats or less and if less and then how much less. The purpose of the RPA is to remain the majority. It is important how many votes the "Prosperous Armenia" party and the Republican Party are going to gain. If the Republican Party has more than 67 seats, the BHK will be neutralized. The party will be offered to join the coalition, and if the BHK does not agree, then it will be destroyed as a political force and its liquidation will not have to necessarily take place immediately after the elections. Generally, two different configurations might appear as a result of the elections.
- Are you experiencing differences giving a forecast for the first time?
- Yes, it is very difficult. Until now (from 1998-2008) the power system recalled a pyramid, consisting of the president (Robert Kocharian) and four parties. In 2006 the "Rule of Law" went out of power (in 2008 it returned to power), and then the ARF. The pyramid collapsed, and nowadays the power is represented by two equal pillars. Moreover, if one of these forces has more than 67 seats, the other force will be destroyed.
- Are there any prerequisites to the parliament becoming qualitatively different from the present one?
- If the Republican Party receives less than 67 seats at the parliament, then it will be a competitive parliament, which will change to some extent the quality of the structure. If the Republican Party wins, there will be no competitive foundation and qualitatively the National Assembly will remain the same, regardless of changes in individuals.
- People say that the political field is divided on geopolitical grounds. Can you agree with this point of view?
- The processes of division of the Armenian political field on geo-political grounds is going fast, and they are designed not for two days, but for the period after 2012. Clearly the West today cooperates with the ruling Republican Party. This does not mean that the RPA is an anti-Russian force, not at all. The Republican Party today is not an anti-Russian force, but the West cooperates with the Republican Party, and therefore the West is making some kind of bets and bases its decisions on perspectives. Perhaps the West will contribute to the gradual transformation of the Republican Party and the replacement of the current members of the Republican Party, representing the criminal-oligarchic circles of people, with nicknames, for the new westernized young Republicans. The latter will work for a long time – from 15 to 20 years.
The West supports the party of "Free Democrats" which entered into the proportional electoral list of the "Heritage" party. Let us recall how the US Ambassador visited the "Free Democrats" when the party had not even been registered. The "Heritage" – "Free Democrats" is an obviously Western project.
The RPA obstructs not only the presidential palace, but even the West. The West is very active in the campaign, it acts systemically. I am talking about the statement of the European People's Party, Wilfried Martens, which expressed unequivocal belief in the victory of the Republican Party, about the activities of certain newspapers and websites that strike at the BHK, as well as activities of the co-reporters of the PACE Monitoring Committee of Armenia, which has been focusing on shading the events of March 1 for the last four years.
The task of the West is to bring the Republican Party to power, neutralize the rest and generally control the Parliament, because Armenia is the last outpost of Russia, and the outpost must fall.
Let us recall the "Arab spring." It did not take place for democracy, but in order to replace the heads of regimes with people who would appear under the control of the West. Today, the West is conducting a modification of the "Arab spring" project in Armenia. It is clear that this is not a Syrian or a Libyan scenario. The purpose of the West is to exclude Russia from the Middle East.
- Does Russia have a project, apart from the well-known approach - "Armenia has nowhere to go from us"?
- I do not see any Russian projects. The US ambassador is very active here, the ambassadors of Great Britain and Germany are also active, but I see no messages from Russian ambassadors or from some Russian politicians. At the RPA congress, Martens sent a very clear message. In case of the BHK, we have not seen anything like that on the part of Russia. Of course, the Congress of the BHK was attended by representatives of the United Russia party, which is cooperating with the BHK, but I do not see any Russian project. Of course, there are some meetings in Moscow with the ANC, representatives of the youth wing of the "United Russia" party come here. Yes, we can see some events, but events and promotion are different things. Some people can reply to me that Russia might be conducting secret work, but I think that there is work to be done openly, so that the electorate can observe it.
