The declaration on the 24th of May by the Prosperous Armenia party leader, the oligarch Gagik Tsarukyan, that the party refuses to create a coalition with the Republican Party of Armenia, not only left the situation with the political forces after the parliamentary elections of the 6th of May
uncertain, but also created a much more uncertain political situation in Armenia. Nowadays there is every reason for such a development of the
situation, at least till the presidential campaign in 2013. Tsarukyan's declaration became the basis for numerous speculations about the future of
his party and of the whole system of power in Armenia. From 2007, Prosperous Armenia was a member of the ruling coalition, headed by the
Republican Party of Armenia and its leader Serge Sargsyan. Before this declaration, the majority of experts were inclined to think that
Prosperous Armenia would join a new coalition with the RPA. Consequently, Tsarukyan's declaration about the inexpediency of creating a coalition
surprised many people. The leader of the party emphasized that such a subordinate role is inexpedient and that he "is ready to suffer losses for
the sake of the people's confidence. It is obvious that "the people's confidence" should become the point of departure in the investigation of
the system of secret political arrangements between ruling elites (no doubt Prosperous Armenia belongs to them).
Prosperous Armenia, which came second in the parliamentary elections of the 6th of May, is the second-largest political force in Armenia after the RPA. The party, headed by one of the most prominent oligarchs, the owner of Multi Group Concern, got 30.12% of the votes of the electorate and 37 seats in parliament. The RPA came first, with 44.02% of the votes and an absolute majority in the parliament (69 seats). The rest, four political parties, got only crumbs from the table of the RPA and the PPA. After that, several media sources paradoxically called the PPA an opposition party. However, it seems that nowadays in reality Tsarukyan's party is even farther from the opposition than just after its foundation. It isn't clear from the poor flow of information about the ruling elites, which still includes the PPA, if this party intends to undertake real measures, or whether Tsarukyan's refusal to create a coalition with the RPA is a game serving his own interests and protecting his property. Amongst the opposition, including the Armenian National Congress, there is an opinion that the PPA is maintaining its loyal position so that their candidate will be able to represent the party in the presidential elections in 2013. Robert Kocharyan, the ex-President of the country, could become such a candidate, according to a lot of experts; by hearsay, he is a grey eminence in Tsarukyan's party. Gagik Tsarukyan has already missed the first parliamentary session of the new parliament and all the next ones, explaining this was due to his "tight schedule".
As a result, there are lots of rumours in Yerevan that in the next presidential elections Tsarukyan will compete with President Sargsyan
for the position of head of state. His unexpected declaration also provoked many rumours that the party was trying to take the initiative from
the opposition before the elections of 2013 in order to minimize the ambitions of Levon Ter-Petrosyan, the leader of the ANC, by drawing away
the last votes of the opposition electorate. The fact that the RPA and Serge Sargsyan aren't worried about the prospect of fighting with Tsarukyan
and his party confirms this assumption. This chain was continued by the appeal of Serge Sargsyan for the members of the RPA not to worry about the decision of the PPA to ignore the new coalition: this appeal was made at the session of the executive body of the RPA. Having listened to the agitated reactions of his teammates concerning Tsarukyan's declaration, the president announced that it is necessary to be correct and gave them a warning to keep silent and not to comment on the situation. He also declared that the situation around the PPA is ambiguous, and many things could still change. Tigran Sarkisyan, the Prime Minister of Armenia and a member of the executive body of the RPA, echoed the President by declaring that the members of the RPA respect the decision of their partners and are sure that collaboration with them will be continued. Answering a question about the character of the opposition that the PPA would belong to, the Prime Minister asked: "Who told you that Prosperous Armenia would join the opposition?" Nevertheless, Tsarukyan's declaration created the impression of a certain understatement, taking into consideration that it was quite unexpected even for the members of the PPA. The day before the declaration the leader of Prosperous Armenia, President Sargsyan and the Speaker of the National Assembly, Ovik Abramyan, met each other, and the meeting ended very late; the source of this information is rumours, and rumours in Armenia aren't generally baseless. After that, Tsarukyan left for Belarus in order to participate in the inauguration of a cognac factory without meeting his followers. This understatement increases, due to the fact that the members of Prosperous Armenia stay silent. Against the background of this silence, the RPA, which holds 69 seats in the parliament, is working hard on its plans of government formation along with its junior partner, the party "Orinats Yerkir".
It seems that the intention to beat into the wind, i. e. to run counter the authorities, wouldn’t do good for any oligarch taking into consideration that oligarchic system exists in Armenia. Tsarukyan’s intention to join the opposition and to abandon the past, all the arrangements and, finally, his property seems ridiculous, and it isn’t necessary to consider or to analyze it. In this context, the PPA doesn’t differ from the RPA. In other words, both the parties got over the same way with some negligible differences. Abandoning this way would look unreasonable. The formation of a new coalition doesn’t matter already; the most important thing is the result of voting in the parliament on the key problems – for example, on protecting and lobbying the interests of businessmen, i. e. the members of the RPA and the PPA. Nevertheless, Prospering Armenia will apparently form a coalition with the RPA after the presidential elections which are due to take place in February, 2013 after losing the vote to the candidate of the RPA. It will join the coalition after obtaining almost all the votes of the opposition, because people won’t vote “for Levon” who is supposedly the only alternative to the ruling party and particularly to Sargsyan. The PPA is famous for its generous donations which include everything – from tractors to medical insurance; moreover, it makes these donations not only within a framework of its election campaign. Consequently, nowadays there is an alternative – a generous and smiling philanthropist who shares his fortune with the people, more properly with the electorate. The results of the previous parliamentary elections which weren’t fabricated and reflected the attitude of the people – fear, uncertainty, greed and self-interest – prove this. That’s why everyone who can’t be corrupted or terrified can be correctly cheated by offering them the candidate from Prosperous Armenia as the representative of the opposition. It doesn’t matter who will became this candidate – Robert Kocharyan, Gagik Tsarukyan or even Vardan Oskanyan; the most important thing is that he will inevitably lose to the candidate of the RPA. After that everything will come full circle – with a coalition or without it. Tsarukyan can hardly choose a dead lion having a living dog.
Having refused to join the coalition, Prosperous Armenia, which has 37 seats of 131 in the parliament, loses eight portfolios of ministers and deputy ministers in the government and a great number of local posts. These positions could be quite useful in the electoral process, taking into consideration that they could let the party use its administrative resources. If Tsarukyan is actually going to promote his presidential candidate, he shouldn’t leave the coalition; alternatively, he should obtain more representatives amongst the authorities. The fact that he did just the opposite is suspicious. It seems that Prosperous Armenia tries to “sell” their support to the RPA; keeping silence and waiting are the important elements of this policy. Besides, Prosperous Armenia has not declared joining the opposition, so its actions and not its declarations will make the political situation clear.
At the moment the main aim of Tsarukyan is the post of the Prime Minister. The base of this assumption is the results of the survey carried out by the “My Opinion” civil initiative for Tsarukyan. One of the questions of this poll was about the best Prime Minister who will manage to surmount the crisis. The list consisted of 15 names, but Gagik Tsarukyan got 78% and came first. The fact that these results were published after the renomination of Tigran Sargsyan to the Prime Minister post speaks for itself; it means that the leader of Prosperous Armenia has fot a lot of ambitious plans though the presidential elections and the nomination of a new Prime Minister are about to take place.
David Stepanyan
