Elmira Tariverdiyeva, Baku. Exclusively to VK
There will be no progress in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process in the near future – this became obvious during the visit to the South Caucasus by the general secretary of the OSCE, Lamberto Zannier. Baku has waited too long for not only protocol words of support, but also real actions from the OSCE and the Minsk Group. A certain background is necessary for progress in the peacemaking process, but there is none – the sides of the conflict have too different positions.
Zannier’s Baku visit is considered in the context of growing interest to the region and the West’s concern about violence flashes on the front-line between Armenian and Azerbaijani armies, but no more. “The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is a big threat for security of the region and economic development of the South Caucasus,” Zannier said in Azerbaijan and expressed support to efforts by the Minsk Group.
However, Baku believes that the OSCE MG fails to fulfill its duties, and the general secretary’s visit will hardly change anything. The target of the Minsk Group requires providing negotiations on peaceful settlement of the crisis according to principles, responsibilities, and provisions of the OSCE, but the negotiations between the conflict’s sides are dead-locked. At the same time the co-chairs believe that the negotiation process as a foundation of Karabakh settlement is intensive, despite growing tension on the occupied territories.
Considering sharp statements by both sides of the conflict, there is no chance for a peacemaking treaty, but the MG co-chairs are still optimistic. Nevertheless, Baku lacks their optimism. It believes that time limits should be defined for settlement of the conflict. “Each time co-chairs visit the region they promise something, but we haven’t witnessed fulfillment of the promises,” deputy chairman, executive secretary of the ruling party Yeni Azerbaijan, Ali Ahmedov, says. “The Azerbaijani society has many issues with co-chairs of the Minsk Group and the Minsk Group in general. How long will it take for the Minsk Group to settle the conflict? For how long should refugees wait for settlement of the conflict?” Ahmedov said.
Impatience of Baku is understandable. Yerevan is satisfied with the current situation and conduction of negotiations under management of the MG. But Azerbaijan has a big problem – about a million of refugees and temporary displaces persons who cannot come back home for 20 years. Azerbaijan expects fulfillment of four resolutions of the UN which urges Armenia to withdraw its army from the occupied Azerbaijani territories. Baku considers their nonfulfillment surprising because the SC resolutions on Libya were fulfilled in a short term. Yerevan does its best to maintain status quo.
However, Zannier emphasized that status quo is unacceptable, but without real pressure on Yerevan these words remain a recommendation only, rather than an obligation. Azerbaijan has many times expressed concern about the extended process, and one day it can simply withdraw from this format of negotiations. The mediation format of the OSCE should be more active; it shouldn’t create an illusion of activity, as prolongation of the conflict touches upon the whole region.
