The former head of Israeli Military Intelligence (AMAN), General Aharon Ze'evi Farkas, stopped staying silent after his retirement and made a statement with his assessment of the situation in the Middle East. Given that Farkas was considered to be a leading expert and analyst for Israel's security, his words are of special significance in the country.
With his usual accuracy, Farkas has outlined the five main threats Israel now faces and possible solutions.
1. The Iranian threat which, according to Farkas, is constantly increasing. Iran is close to developing a nuclear weapon. On the basis of recent statements by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Israeli Defense Minister, Farkas concluded that they judge the possibility of a strike against Iranian nuclear facilities could be as early as this September. At the same time, Farkas says, according to the results of the visit of Leon Panetta, the U.S. Minister of Defense who arrived in Israel early in August, Americans continue to oppose such an attack, and Barak and Netanyahu are nervous because, obviously, in addition to the information known to the public, they also have some information that is driving them to an early decision. However, Farkas has rejected Netanyahu's attempt to draw an analogy between a strike against the nuclear reactor of Iraq and Iranian nuclear facilities. According to him, the Iranians have learned from "Iraqi history” and are well prepared, and the chances of a successful strike against a set of objects located a distance of 1,200 kilometers from Israel are extremely small.
2.The threat of the chemical weapons of the Assad regime falling into the hands of "Hezbollah" or of the militants of "al-Qaeda" on Syrian territory in case of chaos in the country.
3.The threat from Lebanon, on the part of "Hezbollah", which can launch terrorist activity against Israel in response to the fall of the Assad regime in Syria or (especially) an attack on Iran.
4. The threats of attacks from the territory of the Sinai Peninsula, which is currently under the full control of various terrorist organizations and Bedouin smugglers. Recently, several acts of terrorism and rocket attacks on Israel have been committed from Sinai. In the present situation, Farkash said, Israel is obliged to demand that Egypt meet the conditions of the peace treaty and guarantee the security of its borders. But if Egypt does not want to or cannot do that, Israel will be forced to take some steps that may further complicate its relationship with Egypt, which is already very complicated.
5. The endless rocket attacks from the Gaza Strip. Since 2012, the Palestinians have launched over 500 missiles from Gaza on Israel (excluding mortar and other attacks on Israeli border patrols). It is clear that Israel cannot tolerate such a situation, and sooner or later it will be forced to start a new anti-terrorist operation in the Gaza Strip.
In the face of the five major threats, Farkas called for ensuring legitimacy of its actions in the eyes of the world, i.e recognizing the right of Israel to perform such steps by, above all, the West and the U.S., a formula for the success of Israel. Therefore, according to Farkas, Israel will be able to afford an attack on "Hezbollah" or a military operation in Syria only if the whole world knows exactly what chemical weapons are in the hands of terrorists.
It should pursue the same policy concerning Sinai and the Gaza Strip: the world must be sure that Israel has suffered the violation of its sovereignty and the attacks on its citizens too long, and only then will Israel be able to transfer to active military operations.
Farkas considers the Iranian threat to be the "Alpha and Omega" of all the problems of Israel. According to him, in the West everybody is already well aware that the Iranian nuclear program threatens not only Israel but the whole of civilization; but everyone still continues to rely on sanctions. However, according to Farkas, Iran clearly underestimates the determination to attack the nuclear facilities of the current Israeli leadership. But it is clear that the consequences of such an attack could lead not only to the Iranian-Israeli missile-air confrontation, but to a new global war in the Middle East.
Thus, unlike the former Chief of Staff of the Israeli army Gabi Ashkenazi and the former heads of the intelligence services "Mossad" and the Shin Bet, Meir Dagan and Yuval Diskin, General Farkash is not an absolute opponent of a strike on Iran, but he believes that this strike can only be made with the open support of the U.S. and Europe, as well as with the tacit consent of Russia, Turkey and other countries.
Thus, in the next few days the situation in the entire Middle East will depend on the ability of the current political leadership of the Jewish state to make decisions and on its wisdom.
These two qualities - wisdom and the ability to take responsibility for fateful decisions - are known to be the most important characteristics of any political leader. But it is also known that not all politicians have both these qualities.
