On September 9, the Ararat, Armavir, Shirak, Lori and Syunik regions of Armenia will hold elections for local governmental bodies. The election campaign will begin on August 22 and run until September 7. In all the communities, several people put forward their nominations. So, in cities of Sisian, Kapan and Meghri in Syunik region five, four, and three candidates for mayor came forward respectively. In Kajaran, Agarak and Dastakert two candidates are registered; the same number of candidates intend to struggle for the post of mayor of Echmiadzin. In the second and third largest cities of Armenia, respectively, in Gyumri and Vanadzor, elections in which are considered to be central, five people will fight for the post of mayor, including members of the ruling Republican Party of Armenia (RPA), one of the most influential forces in the country today, the party "Prosperous Armenia" and the opposition party "Dashnaktsutiun". Note that the current mayor of Gyumri, Vardan Ghukasyan, did not apply for registration. The RPA previously stated that it would not support the candidature of Ghukasian.
The most active position is taken up by the ruling Republican Party which nominated its representatives or expressed support to independent candidates in all communities. Vice Chairman of the Republican Party, MP Galust Sahakyan stressed the critical importance of the elections: "The Republican Party has always taken the most active part in the elections to the local governmental bodies, because the whole essence of the socio-economic life of the country is based on the work of the community." Meanwhile, the Republican Party accuses the opposition of passivity on the issue of participation in the elections. "For communicating with the people we must first take an active part in the elections to local authorities, and not to think only of the parliamentary and presidential elections. Opposition constantly brags before the upcoming elections to local authorities, make different suggestions, but always avoids the elections to the most important link in the relationship with the people - to local government, " – Sahakyan says.
Indeed, apart from "Dashnaktsutiun", which has the necessary financial resources and party structures in almost all communities, other forces of opposition such as Armenian National Congress (ANC) and the "Heritage" do not participate in the election on September 9. "Dashnaktsutiun" supports an unaffiliated candidate in one community and, in addition, nominates its candidates in 11 communities, including cities of Gyumri, Sisian, Kapan.
According to deputy chairman of "Heritage" Armen Martirosyan, the problems the country faces require a much higher level of solutions, rather than the level of local authorities: "The elections to local authorities cannot implement freely competitive environment in the economy, the rule of law in the administration of the country, ensure transparency in tax and customs authorities, change the laws, provide tax benefits to small and medium business etc. The elections to local government are mainly designed to solve daily problems."
Some members of the ANC declared that the ANC would not participate in the regular activities aimed at legitimizing the authorities, especially since the election outcome is pre-determined. ANC coordinator Levon Zurabyan stated that in the upcoming elections ANC will support political forces that are not part of the ruling coalition, including "Prosperous Armenia". That is, the ANC intends, like in the parliamentary elections, only to struggle against the ruling Republican Party. Most likely, the ANC will not take part in the elections because of limited financial resources.
In turn, board member of the PPA, deputy of the National Assembly Tigran Urikhanian stressed that the PAP is open to any constructive cooperation, if it aims at the protection of law and the rights of voters and candidates: "If Armenians are interested in it, we can constructively cooperate with other forces without preconditions. "
Most likely, the passivity of the opposition will be one of the few distinguishing characteristics of these elections to the local government, which, according to the incoming signals, will be held according to the thumb scheme in which the main link will be presented by administrative resources. Media have disseminated information about the intervention of Director of Kajaran copper-molybdenum factory Maxim Hakobyan in the elections of the mayor supporting the mayor in action Vardan Gevorgyan.
But more important here is the way in which the outcome of the September elections will affect the presidential elections scheduled for February 2013. Elections to local authorities can be regarded as a rehearsal for the presidential election, but only to a certain extent. These elections are held in early September, almost six months before the presidential elections. Many experts believe that the main political intrigues are expected in October or November. Recent history of Armenia shows that for both political parties and the public parliamentary and particularly presidential elections are the key political events. Strengthening of local authorities is one of the key objectives of the ruling administration, but Armenia has its own logic of political struggle, the apogee of which remains the presidential elections. They cannot be held without surprises for voters, and in particular for the authorities.
Such "pre-election surprise", but rather a headache for the government in February 1998, was the former first secretary of the Communist Party of Armenia Karen Demirchyan. The similar situation existed in the fall of 2007: when seemingly nothing could disturb the serene political atmosphere, suddenly, the first President Levon Ter-Petrosyan entered the political arena, after 10 years of silence. Although in both cases the administrative resource clearly worked in favor of the current government, due to the experience and credibility amongst the population of these two politicians, the political situation and the configuration of the political field radically changed. Given the course of the parliamentary elections on May 6, we should not exclude another "pre-election surprise" at this time. Thus, not the election to local government but the next "pre-election surprise" in the fall will determine the future political processes, including the presidential election.
