Pyotr Lukimson. Exclusively to VK
The question on a possible strike of Israel on Iran's nuclear facilities remains the main topic of discussions in the Israeli (as well as Iranian) mass media, and also the social and political circles of the Jewish state. Recently a decision was made to prepare more than 60 underground parking areas of Tel Aviv for use as bomb-proof shelters. A text-message warning system was tested. The army started relocating strategic food and arms supplies. The modern missile defense system “Iron Dome” was sent to the north of the country, despite the fact that it is needed in the south which comes under constant missile attacks from Gaza and the Sinai peninsula.
It is notable that the minister of civil defense was recently replaced in Israel – instead of Matan Vilnai, who left for China to be ambassador, the former head of the General Security Service, Avi Dichter, was appointed. Premier Netanyahu launched another blow to his political opponents by appointing one of the most prominent representatives of the opposition to the position of defense minister. At the moment, there is a balance in the Israeli government between supporters and opponents of a strike on Iran. Dichter appears to be a supporter of such a strike. Thus, Netanyahu gains an advantage in the political struggle for a strike on Iran.
Meanwhile, the former civil defense minister, Matan Vilnai, stated that the CD system of Israel is prepared for war and added that a war with Iran would take a month and about 300 Israeli citizens would be killed. Considering the fact that an explosion of a small nuclear bomb would kill no less than 20 thousand people, a preventative strike on Iran's nuclear facilities seems to be reasonable.
In the second half of August representatives of various left-leaning movements began to protest against a strike on Iran's nuclear facilities. Since August 13 they have been conducting daily demonstrations in front of the Defense Ministry building in Tel Aviv, demanding rejection of the dangerous military adventure. Several hundreds of Israeli society figures – scientists, lawyers, writers, and so on – have already signed a letter urging Air Force pilots of the country to ignore orders to bomb the nuclear facilities of Iran if they are issued. These calls annoyed almost all political circles, even the opposition – the army should obey the government, and such vows are harmful to the country.
The Israeli Defense Ministry believes that there is no time for consideration: in the near future Iran will have a nuclear bomb and this will change the situation dramatically. A well-known Israeli analyst has published an article in which he named 10 reasons for striking Iran:
1. If Iran gets a nuclear bomb, it might use it against Israel.
2. Possessing a nuclear weapon makes Iran a regional super-power and promotes its influence in the Islamic world.
3. Iran’s nuclear weapon will lead to a radical improvement of Islamic terror, as Iran is one of its initiators.
4. After Iran, other countries of the Middle East – first of all Turkey, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia – will want to possess nuclear weapons.
5. A nuclear bomb will enable Iran to dictate its conditions to countries with tolerant Islam – Azerbaijan and Jordan.
6. Iran will define its world oil prices.
7. The political influence of the US and the West in general will weaken.
8. The international nonproliferation convention will collapse.
9. A new political axis China-India-Russia-Iran will appear and the world will be on the brink of a new global war.
10. The current world order will change.
At the same time, journalists note that the developments connecting with preparations for a war seem to be a soap opera about preparation for the war. Iran predicts that the possibility of an Israeli strike on it is tiny. Tehran is probably right.
