Armenia: pre-election situation – 2

Part 2. See Part 1 on http://vestnikkavkaza.net/articles/politics/33013.html

David Stepanyan, Yerevan. Exclusively to Vestnik Kavkaza

The playing of a strange performance of the internal contradiction between Prosperous Armenia and Republican Party of Armenia became imperative. The RPA, where Serge Sargsyan is surrounded by people controlling the majority of the Armenian economy, is reminiscent of the Communist Party of the USSR, with all that that entails. The situation with Tsarukyan’s party is less clear. It was founded by former president Kocharyan in 2006 as a counterbalance to Sargsyan in favor of remaining in power. However, on May 12, 2007, on the day of the parliamentary elections in Armenia, the people who took the top positions and were the administrative resource shifted to the side of the republicans. As a result, Prosperous Armenia took only second place in the parliament after the RPA. Today the situation remains the same. This is proved by growing tensions between the RPA and Prosperous Armenia in the struggle for interests of a small group of people who hold more than 80% of Armenia’s national wealth. It seems PA demands the main leverages of executive power – first of all, the position of prime minister and several ministries – as the price for supporting Serge Sarsyan in the presidential elections in 2013. The RPA seems to reject these requests, fearing losing political influence after a return of Kocharyan to power.

There is another version of the reasons for struggling against the only Armenian party which has stated the necessity of joining the Eurasian Union.

Realizing that a direct struggle against the pro-Russian Prosperous Armenia will cause a negative reaction in Moscow, certain forces in Armenia have incorporated Oskanyan into PA and declared war against him and the whole party. They tried to convince Tsarukyan that it is senseless to be devoted to Russia in the rapidly-changing and globalizing world, which is why it is necessary to diversify geopolitical preferences and include a couple of pro-Western activists in the party. After this, the second important position in the party was taken by a person who actually represents American Mormons. Nevertheless, this operation is a typically American scenario aimed at confirming that Sargsyan has no alternative, according to Yerevan observers.

In reality, the main competition for the presidency will take place between two governmental candidates, rather than between the government and the opposition. Sargsyan vs some candidate from Prosperous Armenia. Development of further processes will depend on agreement being reached between them. The role of foreign players is great in this situation. It seems the answer to the question of whether PA will present a candidate for the elections should be sought not in Armenia, but abroad. Russians and Americans are interested in the result of the game between Republicans and “Prosperous”. However, few people in either party are able to explain their pro-Russian or pro-Western direction from an ideological point of view. However, this is no surprise, given the odd character of all post-Soviet Armenian parties. The only ideology typical for all Armenian political forces is a desire to stay or to get into power.