On Tuesday Vladimir Putin appointed Sergey Shoigu to the position of the defense minister in place of Anatoly Serdyukov. While the departure of Serdyukov was expected in expert circles, the appointment of Sergey Shoigu was a surprise. However, Shoigu has been ordered to return to the government and put the armed forces in order.
Sergey Mikheyev, the head of the Political Situation Center
Serdyukov is not a professional in the military sphere, he is a merchant who turned the Defense Ministry into a business project. Moreover, the military reform conducted by him was heavily criticized, even though he was not its initiator. I believe the negative attitude toward his activity had to cause some reaction some day. Serdyukov’s resignation was predicted for many times, and the case of Oboronservice defined the final resignation.
Shoigu’s appointment can be explained by the fact that the former emergency minister has experience in managing militarized structures. He is also thought to be an honest, non-corrupt person, a popular politician. Considering the specific nature of the scandals surrounding the Defense Ministry, such a person was necessary for the ministry. At the same time, the prospects of the new defense minister in negotiations with the US on the missile defense system and other international issues are dim. These topics involve not only the Defense Ministry, but also many other structures.
Alexei Vlasov, editor-in-chief of Vestnik Kavkaza
As for the Moscow region after Shoigu’s withdrawal, this important region has found itself in a semi-position – neither in a defensive position, nor in an attacking position. Everybody will await the results of elections in 2013. This will negatively influence social and economic projects in the region.
Shoigu’s team will remain in the Moscow region. A succession has to be provided in order not to destroy an administrative vertical appearing. A lot of problems which remain after the previous authorities have to be settled: from Khimki to other key towns of the region.
When it comes to presenting candidates for the position of the governor, a strict behind-the-scenes game will begin, the internal policy department of the presidential administration, the government, United Russia will be involved in it. Probably this intrigue will be more interesting than any chosen option of development of the region during this transactional period. The question of power will be a key issue.
Speaking about postponing projects initiated by Shoigu, including construction projects, such an option is possible, but it wouldn’t be stressed, as Shoigu is very popular. He takes third place in the list of the most popular governors of Russia. The new authorities won’t immediately reject modernization of the region. But they will probably lack resources. The new team will miss such a grand figure as Shoigu.
There is one more conspiracy theory - that the Moscow authorities will swallow the Moscow region in the end. I don’t think this will happen in the near future. This option is possible, but it will take many years to implement it. The key question is who will head the region. Some say that the current deputy head Tsalikov is a probable candidate. The authorities don’t need a grand person in the Moscow region, considering the strengthening of the Moscow administration. The fate of the region will be determined by the Kremlin’s choice of candidate for the elections in 2013.
