by Rossiyskaya Gazeta-Azerbaijan, Alexey Vlasov
The outgoing year has shown that Azerbaijan was capable of proving the importance of its place in the sun in the big politics. Baku has competitors of different caliber, they press and search for weak sports to slow the rise of Azerbaijani influence. But the country has proven that it was not a weak and dependent geopolitical entity since the fall of the USSR.
Azerbaijan seems to be the only post-Soviet example of a country with multi-vector foreign policy. Few former republics of the Soviet Union manage to maintain relatively sustainable relations with Russia and the European Union, Israel and the US, on the one hand, and Iran, on the other. There is also the Arab world where Azerbaijan has a certain range of interests, such as Eastern Asia and China. In such diversity of foreign political practice, the heritage of Heydar Aliyev is obvious. He postulated about the need for balance of relations with as many players as possible, without any obliqueness. So Azerbaijan’s avoidance of any close integration structures is not surprising. Baku is most likely devoted to the policy of flexible regional alliances with clear economic interests. Moreover, diplomatic activity in major international organizations, such as the UN or the Non-Aligned Movement, is distinct. An again, in terms of national interests, Azerbaijan is not ready to take part in international organizations and alliances with limitations to interests of national economy. For instance, Baku is still studying the pros and cons of joining the WTO and does not show readiness to rush into the structure. It is essential in the light of Moscow’s many expectations to see Baku as a member of the Customs Union. Azerbaijan does not close on itself, it is trying to develop bilateral trade-economic relations. On the one hand, Azerbaijan takes part in the Eastern Partnership program initiated by the European Union, but on the other, it an active member of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation. The EBRD and the Asian Development Bank are both developing at a similar scale, Islamic banking shows progress.
Such contrasting mosaic and broad dynamics of foreign policy has logically brought Azerbaijan to the UN Security Council as a temporary member. Notably, the struggle of Slovenia and Azerbaijan for the vacancy at the UNSC as Eastern European states resulted in the Caspian country achieving victory. About a year passed and Azerbaijani diplomats attended a session of the UNSC in early January 2012 for the first time. They were given an opportunity to take part in a dozen of closed-door consultations, several briefing missions and discussions. Azerbaijan chaired sessions of the UNSC twice, in May and September. No doubt, it was a great diplomatic school and significant success for Baku.
2010-2011 was a period of strengthening of Russian and post-Soviet vector of Azerbaijani policy, but 2012, in my opinion, seemed to be passing under the sign of growing western balances. The question of how even were the lines remains a matter of discussions. Many Russian experts were quite emotional about Russia’s leaving the Qabala Radar Station. But the discourses about the relations of Moscow and Baku cooling down neglected some aspects of Russian-Azerbaijani interaction. For example, the humanitarian format of their ties was substantially repleted with various programs, ties between their intellectuals, business communications and other contracts, unlike the external vectors of Azerbaijani humanitarian and socio-cultural policy. It was the Russian-Azerbaijani humanitarian dialogue that grew to become the CIS Baku International Humanitarian Forum. There is no other alternative to this consistent Russian-Azerbaijani cooperation mechanism. Any recessions between Moscow and Baku are an absolutely normal phenomenon, considering that tensions may only occur during joint work and communication. The strategic aspect of their relations is described by the fact that it was Russia what became the first neighbour state of Azerbaijan, a country Baku settled the problem of delimitation and demarcation of the state border with in 2010.
Yet, we should keep other benefits of their relations in mind. It is the US. According to Sergey Markedonov, a specialist for the Caucasus Region, Washington has not been “attacking” Azerbaijan with the traditional rhetoric of universal democratic standards, “and if Washington does that, such criticism is usually voiced by lower-ranking representatives of the American government”. It is a concise complimentary signal helping development of the western vector of Azerbaijani diplomacy. Compared with the US, the European Union may seem as a more comfortable partner. But the EU is interested in further development of ties with Azerbaijan, endeavoring to strengthen their links. Influence and interests of the European Union are not limited by energy. The EU expects realization of the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars Railway project. Brussels is also occupied with regional processes in the Caspian, problems with Iran, Georgia and other countries of the region. Within the framework of the Eastern Partnership program for integration of the EU and six post-Soviet states, Brussels is negotiating an associated agreement with Baku, an agreement to simplify the visa regime and readmission. Their progress in achieving the said goals will be clear at the next summit of the Eastern Partnership in Vilnius in 2013.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev plays a great role in promotion of Azerbaijan at the international arena. He participated at the Davos (Switzerland) forum in February 2012, made a report at the Munich Security Conference. Azerbaijan became a participant of the official program of the Swiss forum for the first time, the Caucasian state got its own panel discussion. Ilham Aliyev made a speech on “The Future of Eurasia”. German paper Handelsblatt said that Azerbaijan and its delegation of 7, including the president, ministers and leading managers, was noticeable in Davos that year. President Ilham Aliyev was seeking attention and finding it. Azerbaijan was making confident steps towards Europe, the paper said. German analysts believe that Baku wanted to be similar to Dubai or Singapore, but had problems evaluating the time it will need to achieve it. A lot in this path will depend on foreign investors and proper balance of private and state contributions. Baku has been discussing the Azerbaijan-2020 strategic concept for the past months. The government wants to double the GDP in the next 10 years, to have it total $130 billion in 2020. According to evaluations of the Asian Development Bank, if the economic growth totals 7-8% every year, infrastructure projects receive about 5% of the GDP every year, the country may need up to $40 billion of investments. Instruments of Azerbaijani foreign policy will share part of the responsibility for accomplishment of the objectives. Stability and security in the region have recently been and will remain the main challenges of further development.
Many analysts note that Azerbaijani geopolitics are based on a complicated and, at some point, paradox diversity. Judging by its heritage, Azerbaijan is a typical post-Soviet state with elements of culture of Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia. Doubtlessly, Azerbaijan has the spirit of secular Islam of Shiite origin, closely connected to Iran historically. According to its language and culture, it is a typical example of modernized Turkic world. If we take a look at the country from the view of classic geography, Azerbaijan located on the crossing of Europe and Asia is a bridge-country. It is not the only state with such special status. Many regions of the planet have these kinds of inter-civilization and socio-political “portals” from the world of the East to the West, for example, Turkey. The danger lies in the fact that foreign forces are trying to take control over the portals. This is why Russian observer must make sure that no foreign power puts geopolitical activity of Azerbaijan under own interests. Baku has always been successful with this task and, I hope, it will carry on that way.
Official position
Azerbaijan and Belarus have intensive cooperation in many spheres of bilateral relations, as stated by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko at a meeting of the Club of CIS, Baltic and Georgian Chief-Editors. The Belarusian president thanked Azerbaijan for support, mentioning the beneficial loan granted by Azerbaijan during the complicated period of Belarus. “Azerbaijan has supported us”, Lukashenko emphasized. The Belarusian leader gave credit to the increasing significance of Azerbaijan in regional processes.
http://www.rg.ru/2012/12/25/strana.html
