Spartak Zhidkov, Abkhazia. Exclusively to Vestnik Kavkaza
See Part 1 http://vestnikkavkaza.net/articles/politics/38113.html
Supporters of Raul Khadzhimba organized a new demonstration on March 11 and presented a new ultimatum to Ankvab, which contains 17 items. The main attack is directed against the head of the government. Tactically it was the right step – the president and the vice-president were elected in the direct elections, their resignation is impossible, but the prime minister is the only figure in president’s team who can be theoretically dismissed due to people’s demand. However, the premier’s employment sheet makes demands of him unreasonable. Lakerbaya is one of the most popular political activists in the republic, his rating among people is rather high. He successfully worked at high positions in administrations of three presidents – Ardzinba, Bagapsh, Ankvab; he has several times taken the position of the first vice-premier, including during the war for independence.
Ahead of the third meeting the opposition formed the Coordinating Council from representatives of several parties which includes four well-known opposition activists – Raul Khadzhimba, Sergey Shamba, Akhra Bzhania, and Yakub Lakoba. It may well be that street demonstrations will continue, but the main goal – establishing a coalition government – is almost unattainable. The president is acting within the constitution field; in the parliament the opposition composes less than a half. Overthrowing of the power is impossible without wide-scaled destabilization of the situation. Considering the fact that last year was very calm in Abkhazia, the citizens will unlikely to change the situation. It can be explained by the fact that the majority of the population ignored invitations to the demonstration.
Ahead of the Sochi Olympics (the first tourists have already come to Abkhazia) nobody is interested in a crisis, moreover, in anarchy. All other bargaining chips against the president have been already used. Ankvab understood that his opponents used a favorable moment, but he took a chance and let them know that he wouldn’t stand blackmailing. Behavior of many opposition activists – aggressiveness, direct threats to political rivals, and groundless illusions – holds people off. Nobody forgets that in 2003-2004 when the premier’s chair was taken by Khadzhimba the coalition government was out of the question.
At the same time, the political rivalry renewed social life in the republic. The Public Chamber acted as a mediator between the government and the opposition: on March 12 it conducted a round table with the majority of opposition leaders. Liberal journalists and public activists support the idea of changes which are not accompanied with ultimatums and give an opportunity to discuss unsolved problems without unbearable demands. In fact the president meets the civil society halfway, rather than the opposition. The question is what a scenario of future political processes in the republic will be. It should be considered that Ankvab feels so confident that he hasn’t used serious reserves, i.e. hasn’t taken his supporters to the streets. Nevertheless, the opposition’s demarche led not to fulfillment of its demands, but to intensification of other players.
The majority of the population doesn’t want to conduct political reforms during economic changes. It should be considered that while the president has a real plan of the republic’s development, while a lot of facilities are being built in Abkhazia, which is impossible without Russia’s support, the opposition’s projects are rather dim. The society calls not for reforms, but for discussions of the reforms.
Therefore, stability is maintained in Abkhazia, and it is far away from “Mimosa Revolution”, as it is called by Ankvab’s opponents.
