Even though Georgia has a lot of its own problems, it is following the situation around the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Georgia has tight links with both Armenia and Azerbaijan. Escalation of the conflict could lead to instability in Georgia. An independent expert, Malhaz Chachava, discussed these problems with Vestnik Kavkaza.
Recently the parliament of Armenia rejected a proposal on recognizing an independent Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. Was this unexpected, as Armenia always spoke in favour of the separation of Nagorno-Karabakh from Azerbaijan?
It wasn't a surprise for me. I think the rejection was planned beforehand. The point was to discuss the problem and then reject it.
What can make Armenia accept the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh?
First of all, there is war. Armenia has shown that it wouldn't do it in peacetime. However, if Azerbaijan tries to solve the problem by military means, Armenia will accept independence.
Moreover, there is no political pressure on Stepanokert by major regional and global forces. Stepanokert doesn't participate in negotiations, they are held in most cases between Baku and Yerevan, mediated by Moscow. Washington, Paris and Brussels function as observers only. Thus, we have a situation similar to the one in Georgia up until 2008. But for the war, Russia would never have accepted the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The ideal variant for Armenia is continuation of infinite negotiations. As long as the status quo remains, Armenia won't accept Karabakh's independence.
What is your prediction?
It all depends on Baku's decision. They have two choices: to continue the negotiations or settle the conflict by military force. There is no in-between.
Armenia is a strategic ally for Russia. There are two notions - "strategic ally" and "strategic partner." Azerbaijan is a strategic partner for Russia, whereas Armenia is a strategic ally, because its mentality is closer to Russia than the Azerbaijani mentality. The most comfort situation for Moscow is absence of direct interference. It will interfere directly only if its ally faces the possibility of defeat. My Azerbaijani colleagues like to say that, unlike Georgia, they have managed to built stable and sound relations with Russia. However, I think that is only till they try to change status quo.
What is the solution?
The solution is to accept the situation and develop other parts of Azerbaijani territory. The other way to settle the conflict is to enter the process of reconstruction of a united state on the territory of the former Soviet Union.
What is the position of Georgia?
Georgia is interested in preserving the status quo in Karabakh. In case of war Georgia will have to make a choice between the parties. Today our country is objectively weaker than Azerbaijan or Armenia. Today we balance between them. Making that choice will lead to many new risks for Georgia.
